降低税收扭曲与畅通国内大循环

Reducing Tax Distortions,and Smoothing the Domestic Circulation

畅通国内大循环关键在于清除经济中各环节的扭曲。本文构建带有生产网络的一般均衡框架,以“营改增”为例探究降低税收扭曲对不同行业产出的结构性影响和对CDP的总量影响,并给出在单独考虑结构影响或总量影响时,最优扭曲纠正政策指向的选取标准:若以提高某行业产出增长率为目的,扭曲纠正政策的目标行业应为与该行业间距离最远的上游行业;若以提高GDP增长率为目的,政策目标则应选择在产业链中处于相对上游位置的行业。在此基础上,本文利用投入产出表数据进行了模拟分析。结果显示,无论增值税征收过程中是否存在扭曲,受“营改增”影响最大的行业多为服务业;就对GDP增长率的拉动效果而言,分别从“营改增”涉及行业和全行业范围考察,航空旅客运输业和开采行业的影响最为明显;“营改增”带来的税收扭曲降低将引起GDP增长率提高1.31个百分点。本文关于降低税收扭曲经济影响的研究对于打通“双循环”堵点、加快构建完整的全国统一大市场具有启发意义。

It is of paramount importance for China to prioritize unimpeded flows in the domestic economy and consider it as the primary impetus for sustainable economic development as the country embarks on a new journey toward building a modern socialist country in all respects.The crux of the strategy lies in removing barriers on both supply and demand sides,with tax distortions being a main hindrance to economic flows.These distortions create a“price wedge”between market supply and demand,distorting price systems and obstructing resources from flowing to specific industries or regions.Moreover,since taxation permeates various links such as production,distribution,circulation,and consumption,under the general equilibrium effect,reducing tax distortions not only directly impacts the supply side but also stimulates the increase in household income through heightened demand,thereby playing a pivotal role in expanding domestic demand.Consequently,reducing tax distortions may hold even greater significance in unblocking theflows in the domestic economy.This paper aims to theoretically analyze and quantify the positive impact of reducing tax distortions on unimpeded domestic economic flows.Firstly,a multi-sector general equilibrium model with the production network is constructed in order to clearly describe the mechanism of distortion shocks.The structural impacts of tax distortions on different industries and their aggregate effects on GDP are then discussed separately,and clear criteria are presented for selecting optimal policy objectives when either the structural impacts or aggregate effects are considered.Therefore,“replacing the business tax with the value-added tax”is taken as an example to simulate and analyze the actual impact of distortion reduction and find out the optimal policy direction.The results indicate that in terms of growth rate,the most affected industries are concentrated in the tertiary sector which plays a crucial role in“replacing the business tax with the valueadded tax.”In terms of the driving effect on GDP growth rate,both from the perspective of industries involved in the VAT replacement scheme and from the overall industry perspective,significant impact is observed in the air-transport industry positioned relatively upstream and the mining industry including various metals,oil and natural gas businesses.The paper calculates that the full replacement of the business tax with VAT would lead to an increase in GDP growth by 1.31 percentage points.The main policy implications of this paper are as follows.Firstly,in order to remove the blocking points and facilitate domestic economic flows more effectively,it is crucial to adopt a policy approach centered around removing distortions.Particularly in terms of tax reform measures,efforts should be directed toward minimizing distortions.Secondly,given that distortion shocks predominantly propagate downstream within an economy's production network,policies aimed at unblocking domestic economic flows need to concentrate on addressing issues faced by upstream industries.This can be achieved by strategically utilizing specific points and regions within the production network while striving for cost reduction so as to enhance overall economic efficiency.