供需循环实现稳就业的双重保障效应分析

Analysis of the Double Guarantee Effect of Supply and Demand Circulations on Employment Stabilization

就业承载着人民对美好生活的需要。本文从新发展格局“经济循环”的内涵出发,基于企业间的中间品供给循环和对企业的最终品需求循环测度了中国经济双循环的就业效应,并通过结构分解分析方法探究了就业变动的影响因素。结果发现,中国基本形成以国内循环为主、兼有国内国际循环联动的双循环就业增长模式,国内循环是实现稳就业的主体,这一特征在供给循环和需求循环中均表现出稳健性。供给循环效应和需求循环效应两者抵消了就业强度效应对就业增长的负向影响,共同保证了中国就业的平稳增长。分解结果表明,实现“稳就业”的关键在于强化国内大循环的主体地位。其中,内外资企业间循环效应和国内对内外资企业的最终品需求效应是国内循环发挥“稳就业”作用的主要原因。相比内资企业间循环效应,内外资企业间循环效应对就业增长的影响更为“稳定”,且随着时间的推移,内外资企业间复杂循环效应逐渐成为驱动中国就业增长新的动力源和稳定就业新的潜力源。本文丰富了双循环经济效应的研究,并为政府实现“稳就业”政策目标提供了重要借鉴。

Examining the supply and demand circulations of the economy at a micro level is crucial for comprehending the double development dynamic and measuring their effects on employment,but it has not been thoroughly investigated in existing literature.This paper measures the employment effects of the two circulations in China's economy from the perspectives of the intermediate goods supply circulation between enterprises and the demand circulation for final goods of enterprises.It also dissects the factors driving changes in employment through Structural Decomposition Analysis(SDA)by considering the heterogeneity of enterprises,and offers a fresh perspective for understanding the role of interaction between different types of enterprises in stabilizing employment.The results show that China has basically formed two engines driving the employment growth,with“domestic economic flows”as the primary driver,supplemented by“international engagement”.Domestic economic flows serving as the core stabilizer of employment remains consistent in both the supply and demand circulations.The supply circulation effect and the demand circulation effect both offset the negative impact of employment intensity on employment growth,thereby ensuring stable employment growth.However,starting from 2012,the influence of the demand circulation on employment growth has been slowing down,while that of the supply circulation has been increasing.The SDA results show that the key to“stable employment”lies in the strengthened position of the domestic economic flows.The circulation between Domestic-Owned Enterprises(DOEs)and Foreign-Invested Enterprises(FIEs),as well as the impact of domestic demand for final goods from both DOEs and FIEs,are the main reasons for the domestic economy's key role in“stabilizing employment”.Compared to the circulation effect between DOEs,the circulation effect between DOEs and FIEs has a more“stable”impact on employment growth.Over time,this complex circulation between DOEs and FIEs has gradually emerged as a new driving force for China's employment growth and a potential source for stable employment.This paper enriches the research on the effects of supply and demand circulations and provides an important reference for the government to realize the policy objective of stabilizing employment.First of all,it is necessary to strengthen the pivotal role of the domestic economic flows in stabilizing employment,and capitalize on the oversized domestic market for driving employment growth.Additionally,it is important to recognize the role of the domestic economic flows and international engagement in driving employment growth.Secondly,efforts should be made to boost employment by tapping into the potential of domestic demand,balancing the relationship between supply and demand,and better aligning the supply system to the domestic demand.Finally,we should work harder to promote the flow of factors to stabilize and expand the stock of foreign investment,and strengthen the“stickiness”of interaction between DOEs and FIEs.