共同富裕:涓滴效应在中国的再检验

Common Prosperity:Re-examining the Trickle-down Effect in China

新近研究发现,多数国家经济增长的成果并不能通过市场机制从高收入群体惠及低收入群体,即“涓滴效应”并不显著。中国是否存在“涓滴效应”,以实现“先富带动后富”?本文使用2012—2018年的微观数据研究发现:高收入者人均实际可支配收入的增加显著降低了农村低收入群体的贫困概率,表明中国存在显著的“先富带动后富”现象。机制研究表明,财政转移支付和国有企业在其中起着关键作用:政府通过建立亲贫财政体系,在不盲目扩张债务的前提下将来自高收入者的税收转化为对低收入者的转移支付和公共服务,从而带动低收入者脱贫;为电力、铁路交通、通信网络提供基础设施的国有企业通过提供服务满足高收入者的需求进行盈利,同时以提供普遍服务或降价的方式为低收入群体提供基础设施,保证其获得基础设施接入的权利,从而带动低收入者脱贫。本文为理解我国“先富带动后富”的机制和实现共同富裕的路径提供了新的思考和证据。

Recent research has found that the fruits of economic growth in most countries do not trickle down fromhigh‐income to low‐income groups through market mechanisms,that is,the“trickle‐down effect”is not significant.DoesChina have a“trickle‐down effect”to realize“get‐rich‐first group driving others to get rich later”?Based on China’spractical experience since the reform and opening‐up,this paper proposes two mechanisms for realizing this goal.Firstly,in addition to directly targeting individual subsidies,central financial transfers also provide low‐income groups with basicdevelopment rights such as education and healthcare through the promotion of“equalization of public services”,whichsimultaneously ensures the realization of“giving a man a fish”and“teaching a man to fish”.Secondly,state‐ownedenterprises(SOEs)are dominant in the electricity,rail transportation,and communications network infrastructuresectors,and play a“quasi‐government”role in providing services to remote areas and low‐income groups in the form of“universal service”,which empowers them to access infrastructure as a fundamental right to development.This paper uses the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)database to test the roles of the two mechanisms of centralfinancial transfers and SOEs in realizing the trickle‐down effect in China since 2012.This study firstly summarizes thecharacteristics of typical registered poor households,then explains how the central financial transfers and SOEs with“pro‐poor”characteristics have an impact on driving poor households out of poverty,and finally establishes a regressionmodel to carry out empirical analyses.The results of empirical research show that the get‐rich‐first group can indeed drivethe low‐income group to get rich,that is,the income growth of the high‐income group has a significant contribution to thepoverty alleviation of rural households.The mechanism tests show that the increase in the income of urban residentssignificantly increases the central financial transfers and SOEs’construction of electric power,railroad transportation,and communication network infrastructure,which then benefits low‐income groups and thus reduces the probability ofpoverty.The marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects.Firstly,this paper examinesthe impact of the income growth of high‐income earners on the probability of poverty of low‐income disadvantaged groupsin rural areas of China from the perspective of micro‐household data,to re‐test the“trickle‐down effect”,and effectivelyenrich the discussion on the“trickle‐down effect”.Secondly,this paper delves into the decisive role of the fiscal systemand SOEs in the access of low‐income vulnerable groups to the right to development.This paper finds that the pro‐poorfiscal transfers and the services provided by SOEs for infrastructure such as electricity,transportation,and communica‐tions not only meet the needs of high‐income groups but also ensure the right to development of low‐income groups,thushelping them to escape from poverty.Thirdly,the paper provides a detailed analysis of the dynamic process of“get‐rich‐first group driving others to get rich later”,showing how to achieve common prosperity through financial trans‐fers and public services provided by SOEs,especially how the government can utilize the tax revenues of high‐incomeearners to support the low‐income group and bring them to prosperity without blindly expanding its debt.