服务业数字投入、本土市场规模与国内分工深化——兼论产业链外部风险

Digital Input of Service,Domestic Market Scale and Deepening Domestic Labor Division:Concurrently on External Risks in the Industrial Chain

数字经济改变了服务业“不可贸易”和“低效率”的传统属性,为中国依托国内大市场实现服务业高质量发展、打造内需主导型价值链提供了新的契机。本文从国内生产链长视角考察数字投入对服务业国内分工深化的作用机制和效果。结果表明:数字投入一方面能通过提升全要素生产率和资源配置效率显著增加国内生产链长,促进国内分工深化;另一方面能通过降低劳动力比较优势的重要性,推进高收入国家的国内分工深化。本土市场规模会产生逆向牵引和虹吸效应,从而强化数字投入的分工深化作用。这一结论在更靠近需求端的下游行业和门槛效应分析中得到了论证。异质性分析表明,数字投入对生产性服务业的分工深化作用更明显;数字产品投入和国外投入对国内分工深化有着显著的抑制作用;与此同时,适度降低跨境数据流动限制有利于强化分工深化效应。拓展分析表明,数字投入会通过降低生产过程外部风险提升产业链安全,本土市场规模在这过程中发挥了“蓄水池”和“压舱石”的作用。以上研究结论对于中国打造内需主导型服务业价值链,实现服务业提质增效和产业链安全稳定提供了理论和事实依据。

The digital economy has become a crucial factor in improving the quality and efficiency of the servicesector,thus driving China’s high‐quality economic development.At the same time,external risks to supply chains haveincreased due to factors such as Sino‐US trade frictions,the COVID-19 pandemic,and geopolitical conflicts.Thishighlights the growing importance of utilizing China’s substantial domestic market and service digitalization,which havethe potential to deepen the domestic labor division,thereby mitigating external risks to supply chains.This paper constructsindicators of digital input in services based on the World Input‐Output Database(WIOD).It examines the effects ofdigital input in services on the deepening of domestic labor division and the mechanisms.Additionally,this paperexamines the moderating effect of domestic market scale on the labor division deepening effects of digital input inservices,and the varying effects of different types of digital input on different service industries.Finally,this paperconstructs an indicator to measure external risks to supply chains,and examines the influence of digital input in servicesand domestic market scale on the exposure and intensity of external supply chain risks.This paper finds that the increase of digital input in services leads to a significant extension of the domesticproduction chain length in the global value chains(GVCs).This extension promotes a deeper domestic labor division,which enhances the nation’s ability to control production processes and reap economic benefits.Digital input promotes amore profound domestic labor division through three crucial pathways:enhancing production efficiency,resourceallocation efficiency,and labor substitution effects.The domestic market scale engenders a demand‐driven reverse pullingand siphoning effect,thereby reinforcing the deepening effect of digital inputs.It is further validated in analyses of serviceindustries closer to the downstream and through threshold effect tests.The heterogeneity analysis shows that digital inputhas a greater impact on producer services.Compared to domestic digital input and product digital input,foreign digitalinput and service digital input hinder the deepening of domestic labor division.However,imposing strict restrictions onthe cross‐border flow of foreign digital input can also impede the realization of the labor division deepening effects ofdigital input.Therefore,it is important to maintain reasonable cross‐border data restrictions.Additionally,digital inputcan decrease external risk,thus promoting supply chain security and stability.The domestic market scale serves as aregulatory“reservoir”and“ballast stone”in this process,reducing the impact of external shocks and contributing tooverall economic resilience.The findings of this paper have significant policy implications and practical insights.Firstly,it is necessary tostrengthen domestic digital platforms and promote digital informatization,involving promoting the growth of emergingservice industries that rely on big data,such as information consulting services,smart logistics,telemedicine,and onlineeducation.Secondly,the paper suggests leveraging China’s vast market scale advantage to foster a deeper domestic labordivision through a large domestic market.Thirdly,it recommends a moderate easing of cross‐border data flow restrictionsand expediting alignment with international high‐standard data flow regulation systems.The marginal contributions of this paper lie in three aspects.Firstly,it unveils that in contrast to GVCs in manufac‐turing,GVCs in services exhibit more pronounced demand‐driven characteristics.Secondly,it enriches the dimensionsthrough which digital input affects GVCs in services by examining the role of domestic market scale from the perspectiveof production chain length.This provides a basis for constructing a high‐quality domestic labor division system groundedin a large domestic market.Thirdly,this paper presents innovative indicators for measuring external risks to supply chains.Furthermore,it analyses the impact of digital input and domestic market scale on external supply chain risks from the per‐spectives of risk exposure and risk intensity,providing empirical evidence on how to enhance supply chain securitythrough a large domestic market and digital input.