鲁甸县乡村韧性空间分布格局及其影响机制

Study on Spatial Distribution Pattern and Influence Mechanismof Rural Resilience in Ludian County

乡村韧性是乡村对自然环境和社会经济不断适应和协调之后形成的,测度其韧性分布格局对乡村可持续发展具有重要意义.以鲁甸县为研究对象,从经济、社会、工程和生态4个维度构建乡村韧性评价指标体系,运用多因素综合评价法、空间自相关和地理探测器等方法研究乡村韧性分布格局和影响机制.结果表明:1)鲁甸县乡村韧性呈现“东南高西北低”的空间分异格局,整体水平偏低,差异性显著,与现状乡村聚落分布格局不匹配,居民点密度高的区域乡村韧性低,亟需提升韧性.2)乡村韧性空间分布整体存在正相关性,局部聚集特征呈现县域西北部低-低集聚区,东南部高-高集聚区,北部和南部的乡村韧性在空间上呈现无关联性.3)乡村韧性空间格局异质性主要受生态因素和工程因素的复合作用,其次是经济因素,社会因素解释力最弱,每千人医疗卫生床位数是影响乡村韧性的最主要因子,2种因子对乡村韧性的交互作用都要大于单一因子的独自作用.

Rural resilience is formed by the continuous adaptation and coordination of rural areas to the natural environment and social economy.It is of great significance to measure the distribution pattern of resilience for rural sustainable development.Taking rural settlements in Ludian county as the research object,the evaluation index system of rural resilience was constructed from four dimensions,i.e.,economy,society,engineering and ecology.The distribution pattern and influence mechanism of rural resilience were studied by using a multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method,spatial autocorrelation and geographical detector.The results show that:1)the rural resilience of Ludian County presents a spatial differentiation pattern,which is“high in the southeast and low in the northwest”.The overall level is low and the difference is significant,which does not match the current distribution pattern of rural settlements.2)There is a positive correlation in the spatial distribution of rural resilience,and the local aggregation characteristics show the low-low agglomeration area in the northwest of the county,the high-high agglomeration area in the southeast,and the rural resilience in the north and south has no correlation in space.The spatial pattern heterogeneity of rural resilience is mainly affected by the combination of ecological factors and engineering factors,followed by economic factors,and social factors have the weakest explanatory power.The number of medical and health beds per thousand people is the most important factor affecting rural resilience.The interaction of the two factors on rural resilience is greater than the single factor.