中国车用空调制冷剂减排情景预测及管控建议

SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF HYDROFLUOROCARBONS EMISSION REDUCTION AND CONTROL STRATEGY FOR CHINA’S MOBILE AIR-CONDITIONING SECTOR

中国是当前全球最大的氢氟碳化物(HFCs)生产国和消费国,生产量和出口量均占全球的1/2以上。HFCs是重要的空调制冷剂,也是强效温室气体。建立了车用空调制冷剂排放清单及预测模型,以HFCs国际履约和碳达峰碳中和为目标,结合车用空调制冷剂排放管控现状、汽车保有量发展趋势等,对基准情景、强化情景和国际对标情景下的车用空调制冷剂排放量和消费量进行了预测分析。结合行业发展和管控目标,对不同减排路径进行了分析,提出了未来我国车用空调HFCs减排的管控建议。

China is currently the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),accounting for more than half of the world’s production and exports.HFCs are both robust greenhouse gases and important air-conditioning refrigerants.This study establishes a mobile air-conditioning(MAC)refrigerant emission inventory and forecasting model based on industrial development and domestic and international literature research.Taking international commitments on HFCs and carbon neutrality as the targets,and combining the current situation and management of MAC refrigerant emissions and the development trend of the automobile population,the baseline scenario,enhanced scenario,and international scenario of MAC refrigerant emissions and consumption were predicted and analyzed.Combined with the development of the industry and the control objectives,different emission reduction paths are analyzed,and the future control suggestion of HFCs emission reduction in China’s mobile air-conditioners is put forward.