俄罗斯核战略的演变及其影响

The Evolution of Russian Nuclear Strategy and Its Implications

俄罗斯是一个重视安全并强调通过军事手段维护国家安全的国家,核威慑战略是其维护国家安全的重要手段。苏联解体以来,随着俄美关系以及俄对其面临威胁认知的变化,俄罗斯的核战略也在发展变化。叶利钦执政初期,吸取苏联的教训,加之希望与欧美国家建立更紧密的关系,俄罗斯奉行“防御”核战略。在普京执政后,俄罗斯谋求大国地位,俄美关系不协调,俄加强了核威胁,奉行“先发制人”的预防性核打击战略。2014年克里米亚危机后,欧美对俄罗斯实施制裁,同时帮助乌克兰提高防御能力,俄罗斯转而奉行“核常并重”的核战略。在俄乌冲突长期化的背景下,俄罗斯的核战略又调整为“拒止性威慑”战略,并不断降低核使用门槛,旨在提高核遏制能力,以达到慑止欧美的目的。俄罗斯退出了与美国签订的一系列军事合作协定,从高官到学者都在警告核战争的风险,强调俄罗斯的战略核力量处于战备状态。俄罗斯对核力量的使用前景不容乐观,了解俄罗斯核战略的演变逻辑及其应用场景显得特别迫切。

As a country that values security and emphasizes the maintenance of national security through military approaches,Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy is an important means of maintaining its national security.Since the collapse of the Soviet Union,Russia’s nuclear strategy has been evolving as the Russian-U.S.relations and Russia’s perception of its own threats have changed.In the early years of Yeltsin’s rule,drawing on the lessons of the Soviet Union and the desire to build closer relations with the United States and European countries,Russia pursued a nuclear defense strategy.After Putin came to power,Russia sought great power status,while the relationship between Russia and the U.S.was not coordinated.Russia strengthened the nuclear threat and pursued a pre-emptive and preventive nuclear strike strategy.After the Crimean crisis in 2014,the U.S.and Europe imposed sanctions on Russia,and at the same time helped Ukraine to improve its defense capabilities.Following this,Russia shifted to a nuclear strategy of both nuclear and conventional.Against the backdrop of a prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine,Russia’s nuclear strategy has been adjusted to a strategy of deterrence by denial,and has continuously lowered the threshold for nuclear use,aiming to improve nuclear containment capabilities to achieve the purpose of deterring the U.S.and Europe.Russia has withdrawn from a series of military cooperation agreements with the U.S.,and a wide range of actors from top officials to academics have been warning of the risk of nuclear war,emphasizing full operational readiness of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces.The prospects for the use of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces raise the importance and urgency of understanding the evolving logic of Russia’s nuclear strategy and the scenarios for its application.