摘要
依据信息模糊和不确定状态下乏信息数据处理理论,提出了一种改进多变量灰色系统的乏信息堤防短期预测模型;引入多变量灰色模型对多测点的沉降变形序列进行拟合,结合混沌粒子群优化算法和分数阶微积分理论,实现了在乏信息条件下对堤防多测点变形的短期预测;由对比结果可知,研究提出的模型可行且有效,填补了堤防乏信息处理模型的空白。
Based on the theory of data processing of poorinformation under fuzzy and uncertain information,an improved multi-variable grey system short-term prediction model of poorinformation levee is proposed.The multivariable grey model is introduced to fit the sedimentation deformation sequence of multi-measuring points.Combined with chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm and fractional calculus theory,the short-term prediction of deformation of multi-measuring points is realized under the condition of lack of information.The comparison results show that the proposed model is feasible and effective,filling the gap in the poorinformation processing model of levee flood.
作者
顾冲时
崔欣然
顾昊
吴艳
朱明远
林旭
郭瑞
GU Chongshi;CUI Xinran;GU Hao;WU Yan;ZHU Mingyuan;LIN Xu;GUO Rui(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Xinjiang Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Urumqi 830049,China;Huai’an Water Conservancy Survey Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Huai’an 223001,China)
出处
《江苏水利》
2024年第6期1-5,共5页
Jiangsu Water Resources
基金
江苏省水利科技项目(2022024)
河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(B230201011)
国家自然科学基金(U2243223,52379122)
江苏省科协青年科技人才托举工程(TJ-2022-076)
安徽省自然科学基金联合基金(2208085US17)
新疆维吾尔自治区水利科技专项(XSKJ-2023-23)。
关键词
乏信息
堤防
多变量灰色模型
分数阶微积分
混沌粒子群算法
poorinformation
levee
multi-variable grey model
fractional calculus
chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm
