时空约束与美国对中东国家武器转让策略

Spatio-Temporal Constraints and the US Policy Selection of Arms Transfers to the Middle East Countries

武器转让是美国实现其外交政策的重要工具。第二次世界大战结束后,美国对寻求武器进口的中东国家制定了差异化策略。基于时间和空间的分析维度,作者认为威胁紧迫度的高低与战略选择空间的大小影响了美国在中东地区的议价能力,从武器的质量和数量两个层面塑造了美国对中东国家的武器转让策略,进而决定了其是否会向中东国家提供具有战略价值的武器以及接收国在武器获取数量上的满足度。借助大量解密档案及相关资料,作者以美国艾森豪威尔政府、肯尼迪政府、尼克松政府—福特政府以及卡特政府时期对土耳其、以色列、伊朗、沙特阿拉伯和埃及等中东国家的武器转让案例验证了这一发现。通过关注美国政府战略考量在时间和空间条件约束下形成的认知,作者认为威胁紧迫度和战略选择空间是美国武器转让策略的决定性因素,使美国对中东国家转让武器时保持了质量和数量上的差异。

Arms transfer is a crucial tool for the United States to implement its foreign policy.the US tailored differentiated strategies towards Middle East countries that sought arms imports.The authors propose,based on dimensions across time and space,that the level of threat urgency and the size of strategic choice affect the US bargaining power in the Middle East.This shapes the US arms transfer strategy in terms of both quality and quantity,ultimately determining the provision of strategically significant arms and recipient satisfaction with the quantity acquired.Through meticulous analysis of declassified documents,the authors have scrutinized the US arms transfer cases to key Middle East countries-Turkey,Israel,Iran,Saudi Arabia,and Egypt-during the Eisenhower,Kennedy,Nixon-Ford,and Carter administrations.By focusing on how strategic considerations evolve under temporal and spatial constraints,this paper reveals that the urgency of threat and the space of strategic choice are central variables shaping the US arms transfer strategy,with special emphasis on qualitative and quantitative features and differences.Moreover,this paper discusses in depth the bargaining power of powerful states in asymmetric alliances.