“脱贫不脱政策”何以防止脱贫农户返贫

How to Prevent Rural Households Lifted Out of Poverty From Returning to Poverty Through Continuous Poverty Alleviation Policies?

基于2021年渝、滇、黔三省(市)原集中连片特困地区的1171户农户微观调查数据,本文测算过渡期脱贫农户返贫风险,利用倾向得分匹配法检验“脱贫不脱政策”的防止返贫效应,并采用中介效应模型分析“脱贫不脱政策”防止返贫的作用机制。研究发现:脱贫农户返贫风险呈中间大、两头小的“橄榄形”分布。“脱贫不脱政策”具有防止返贫效应,但不同类型的帮扶手段具有异质性影响。具体来看,发展型帮扶手段能够有效防止返贫,但该类型帮扶手段对低返贫风险脱贫农户的政策效应更强;而兜底型帮扶手段仅对高返贫风险脱贫农户发挥防止返贫效应。机制分析表明,发展型帮扶手段能够通过提供非农就业机会、激发脱贫农户务工积极性降低脱贫农户返贫风险,而兜底型帮扶手段则不通过这一路径影响脱贫农户返贫风险。进一步分析发现,技能培训能够激发发展型帮扶手段的防止返贫效应,兜底型帮扶手段“退出”不会对低返贫风险脱贫农户产生明显影响。本文研究结论为分类优化调整过渡期帮扶政策提供了经验证据,有助于完善“脱贫不脱政策”的瞄准机制。

Based on the micro survey data of 1171 rural households in the concentrated and contiguous poverty-stricken areas of Chongqing,Yunnan,and Guizhou provinces(municipalities)in 2021,this paper calculates the risk of poverty return for households lifted out of poverty during the transition period,uses PSM method to test the anti-poverty effect of the“continuous poverty alleviation policies",and adopts the intermediary effect model to analyze the implementation mechanism of the“continuous poverty alleviation policies"to prevent retun to poverty.We find that the risk distribution of rural households lifted out of poverty returning to poverty shows an olive shaped pattern with large size in the middle and small size at both ends.The“continuous poverty alleviation policies"have the effect of preventing retun to poverty,but different types of assistance methods have heterogeneous effects.Specifically,the development-oriented assistance measures can effectively prevent return to poverty,but this type of assistance has a stronger policy effect on the households at low risk of returning to poverty.In contrast,the bottom-up assistance measures only have a preventive effect on the households at high risk of returming to poverty.Mechanism analysis shows that the development oriented assistance methods can reduce the risk of poverty alleviation by providing non-agricultural employment opportunities and stimulating the enthusiasm of rural households lifed out of poverty to work,while the bottom-up assistance methods do not affect the risk of poverty alleviation for rural households through this path.Further analysis reveals that skill training can stimulate the anti-poverty effect of development-oriented assistance methods,and the withdrawal of bottom-up assistance methods will not have a significant impact on households with low risk of returning to poverty.The conclusions of this paper provide empirical evidence for the optimization and adjustment by category of transitional assistance policies,and help improve the targeting mechanism of the“continuous poverty alleviation policies".