摘要
The degree and scope of constraints imposed by International Organizations(IOs)on States are increasing,and identifying the factors affecting the IOs’stances on States is helpful to enhance the state's discourse power and influence in the international community.First,by coding the records of Regular Press Conferences of the Speaking Office of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs during the period of 20182022,we obtained a dataset of IOs’stances on China-related events.Second,we constructed political relation,economic relation,and humanistic relation indicators to complement the influence factors,adopted the Bayesian logit model,and applied the Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithm and Gibbs sampling to analyze the probability of IOs’positive stances towards China.The result shows that IOs’category,length of establishment,functional position,and relationship with China are all related to their tendency of making a statement about China.In terms of the heterogeneity of event types,forum-type IOs are significantly inclined to give positive assessment compared to service-type IOs on events focusing on China's own development.Further analysis reveals that the model for analyzing and predicting the attitudes of IOs is more effective when the international situation is in a stable period.
