摘要
基于InVEST模型评估1990—2020年哈密市碳储量变化及其对土地利用变化的响应,运用最优参数地理探测器模型分析碳储量空间驱动因素,并采用PLUS模型预测2040年生态系统碳储量。结果表明,1990—2020年哈密市耕地、草地、建设用地面积增加,未利用地、林地、水域面积减少,生态系统碳储量共增加3855.93×10^(4) t,呈现中间高、四周低的空间分布特征,土地利用与人为干扰指数是主要驱动因素。未利用地向草地转移是碳储量增加的主要原因,生态用地向建设用地和未利用地转移是碳储量减少的主导因素。2040年哈密市生态系统碳储量预测值为50525.62×10^(4) t,伊州区和巴里坤县为未来碳储量主要增加区。
Based on InVEST model,the changes of carbon storage and its response to land use change in Hami from 1990 to 2020 were evaluated.The spatial driving factors of carbon storage were analyzed by optimal parameter geographic detector model,and the ecosystem carbon storage in 2040 was predicted by PLUS model.The results showed that from 1990 to 2020,the area of cultivated land,grassland and construction land increased,while the area of unused land,forest and water area decreased.The ecosystem carbon storage increased by 3855.93×10^(4) t,showing a spatial distribution characteristic of high in the middle and low in the surrounding areas.Land use and human disturbance were the main driving factors.The conversion of unused land to grassland was the main reason for the increase of carbon storage,and the conversion of ecological land to construction and unused land was the leading factor for the decrease of carbon storage.The predicted value of ecosystem carbon storage in Hami in 2040 was 50525.62×10^(4) t.Yizhou District and Balikun County were the main areas of carbon storage increase in the future.
作者
金璞珺
赵俊
阿依吐尔逊·沙木西
王志强
石晶
JIN Pujun;ZHAO Jun;AYITUERXUN Shamuxi;WANG Zhiqiang;SHI Jing(School of Public Administration(Law School),Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070,China)
出处
《环境监测管理与技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期27-34,40,共9页
The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72164035)
新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费科研基金资助项目(XJEDU2023J018)。
