摘要
台风致灾因子具有多重性,相对于其他灾种其风险评估更加复杂。采用安徽省81个国家气象站及1035个区域气象站台风过程逐日降水量、最大风速资料,构建台风风雨综合指数;利用台风风雨综合指数及孕灾环境影响系数,开展台风致灾危险性评估;基于自然灾害风险系统理论,综合致灾危险性、承灾体暴露度和脆弱性信息,评估安徽省台风灾害房屋风险。结果表明:影响安徽省台风年均个数为1.9个,持续天数以2~4 d居多;台风降水南部多于北部、山区多于平原。台风致灾高危险区位于皖南山区和大别山区,较高危险区位于江淮之间东部,低危险区位于沿淮淮北大部及江淮之间西北部。台风灾害房屋高及较高风险区主要分布在大别山区、江淮之间东部及皖南山区,这些区域海拔总体较高,台风过境易引发山洪地质灾害,加之房屋脆弱性较高,房屋倒塌及损毁风险高;中等风险区位于沿淮至江淮之间、江南部分地区,呈零星分布;较低和低风险区位于淮河以北中西部、沿江部分地区及城市主城区。利用全省各县区台风造成的房屋倒损数据,从空间一致性及散点相关对区划结果进行验证得到,区划结果与灾损具有高度的空间一致性,二者散点相关通过0.01的显著性水平检验,安徽省台风灾害房屋风险区划结果与实际情况基本吻合。
Typhoon disaster factors show multiplicity,so the risk assessment of typhoon-related disasters is more difficult than other hazards.Using the typhoon precipitation and maximum wind speed data of 81 national meteorological stations and 1035 regional automatic meteorological stations in Anhui Province,a comprehensive typhoon wind and rain intensity index is first constructed.Then the typhoon wind and rain intensity index and disaster pregnant environment impact coefficient are used to assess the risk of typhoon disasters.According to the theory of natural disaster risk assessment,the risk assessment of housing damage by typhoon disaster in Anhui Province is conducted by integrating disaster-causing hazards,exposure level and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies.The results show that Anhui Province is affected by about 1.9 typhoons per year on average,with a duration of 2-4 days.The results are as follows.The southern part and mountainous areas usually have more typhoon precipitation than the northern part and plain areas.The high-hazard region caused by typhoon disasters is mainly located in the southern mountainous and Dabie Mountains in Anhui Province,with the relatively high-hazard region in the east of Jianghuai region,and the low-hazard area in most of the regions to the north of the Huaihe River and in the northwest of Jianghuai region.The high and relatively high-risk area of housing damage caused by typhoon disasters is located in the Dabie Mountains,the eastern part of the Jianghuai region,and the southern mountainous area in Anhui Province.These areas are generally high in elevation,and easily suffer from geological disasters and mountain floods during typhoon transit.In addition,the vulnerability of houses is high,which further causes a high risk of house collapse and damage.The medium-risk region is scattered in the Huaihe River region and Jiangnan region.Lower and low-risk areas are located in the central and western parts to the north of the Huaihe River,regions along the Yangtze River,and main urban areas.Using reports on house damage caused by typhoons from different counties in Anhui Province,the zoning results are verified through spatial consistency and scatter correlation.A high degree of spatial consistency between the risk zoning results and the actual damage,with scatter correlation between them passing a significance test of 0.01,indicating that the risk zoning results of housing damage by typhoon disaster in Anhui Province are basically consistent with the actual situation.
作者
宋阿伟
田红
王胜
刘前
谢五三
唐为安
戴娟
丁小俊
吴蓉
SONG Awei;TIAN Hong;WANG Sheng;LIU Qian;XIE Wusan;TANG Weian;DAI Juan;DING Xiaojun;WU Rong(Anhui Province Climate Center,Heifei 230031;Mengcheng County Meteorological Bureau,Bozhou 233500)
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2024年第3期363-370,共8页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目(QYHZF202309)
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J007)。
关键词
台风灾害
风险评估
致灾因子
风雨综合指数
承灾体
栅格
typhoon disaster
risk assessment
hazard factor
wind and rain intensity index
disaster bearing body
grid