地方公共债务与企业不动产投资:效应与机制

Local Public Debt and Corporate Investment in Housing:Effect and Mechanism

中国经济发展呈现出地方政府公共债务规模持续走高的同时,非房地产企业不动产投资也在不断扩大的典型特征,而鲜有研究对此进行相应解释。本文结合2007—2018年上市公司数据,分析了地方公共债务对企业不动产投资的效应与机制。研究结果表明,地方公共债务扩张显著推高了企业的不动产投资倾向,其背后的影响机制是地方公共债务扩张挤占了信贷资源,从而加剧了企业间的融资竞争,为了获得更有利的融资地位,企业被迫增加不动产投资以提高融资所需的抵押品。异质性分析发现,地方公共债务扩张主要影响了成长期后的企业和制造业企业的不动产投资。本文的研究对于建立同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理机制具有重要的现实启示。

In adhering to the new development philosophy and accelerating the establishment of a new pattern of development,safeguarding against systemic risks and maintaining sustainable healthy economic development is crucial for reinforcing economic security and promoting high-quality economic growth.Local public debt and real estate risks currently require heightened attention within China's domestic economic sphere,as they are intricately linked.Local public debt can augment real estate prices through capitalization effects,encouraging firms to enter real estate-related industries and hold property assets for capital gains.Such strategic and deliberate real estate asset allocation by firms certainly presumes a perpetually booming housing market,rendering it inapplicable under conditions where real estate markets face corrections influenced by both economic shocks and regulatory policies.If driven solely by investment motives for asset preservation and appreciation,firms'real estate investment will display a high sensitivity to economic cycles.This paper has identified a robust positive correlation between local public debt and non-real estate firms'housing investment from 2007 to 2018,which cannot be explained by preservation and appreciation alone.The crux of the matter lies in the probability that firms'real estate holdings serve not only as asset investment but also as collateral for financing.When local government debt competes for credit resources,firms may feel compelled to use real estate as collateral in a more intense financing landscape.In contrast to proactive motives for asset investment,the intention to hold real estate as collateral often represents a strategic yet reactive measure in response to the constriction of credit by local government indebtedness.Firms choose to bear higher financing costs for housing investment primarily because real estate assets are required as collateral to access future financial leverage.Simultaneously,these investments are the price to prevail in a competitive financing environment characterized by banks'reluctance to lend and their escalating credit standards.This study,utilizing data from listed companies between 2007 and 2018,examines the effect and mechanism of local public debt on firms'real estate investment.The findings are as follows.Firstly,the size of local public debt significantly pushes up the propensity of non-real estate firms to invest in real estate.Secondly,an expansion of local public debt displaces available credit,thereby exacerbating the competition for funding amongst firms.Firms are compelled to amplify their real estate investment as a strategic move to secure enhanced collateral for improved financing terms.Thirdly,the impact of local public debt on firms'real estate investment is more concentrated in the post-growth period and in the manufacturing sector,which is the core sector of the real economy.Fourthly,the propensity of firms to accumulate property as collateral ties firms'investment and financing closely to fluctuating housing prices,leading to greater investment instability,which could potentially hinder consistent economic growth.Regarding current economic development in China,the conclusions drawn offer several insights.Firstly,the supervision over local government debt must be intensified to prevent unauthorized interference by these authorities.As the permissions for local governments to incur debt judiciously are liberalized,a balanced approach is essential to scale back the volume of municipal investment bonds both consistently and materially.Secondly,it is essential to propel the social credit system,diversifying firms'credence mechanisms.The considerable economic disturbances wrought by financial frictions are partly a dire consequence of the absence of a well-established social credit system.Hence,perfecting the social credit system through various channels is quintessential for unblocking the domestic economic cycle.Thirdly,it is necessary to manage the real estate market regulation adeptly and avoid drastic price swings.As China grapples with real estate regulation,juggling development and security is imperative,fostering beneficial finance and real estate cycles within the supply side,while attentively addressing firms'real estate demand to prevent detrimental economic downslides due to a real estatemarketdownturn.