基于个体模型的传染病检测–追踪–隔离防控措施评估

Evaluation of effects of detection-tracking-isolation in infectious disease control based on individual models

目的通过建立计算模型研究检测–追踪–隔离措施对于疫情传播动力学的影响,以评价不同防控措施的效果。方法基于个体模型和动态密切接触网络模拟疫情传播动力学。在模型模拟中根据个体间接触网络的动态变化,对传染病确诊者的密切接触者(密接)、次密切接触者(次密接)和涉疫场所暴露者进行追踪,对不同个体实施隔离或检测等不同的管控措施。通过模型计算模拟局部区域发生疫情以后的疫情演变过程,并估计累计感染人数和每日新增感染人数的变化。结果当没有采取防控措施时,疫情发生后感染人数快速指数增长,7 d左右达到每日新增感染人数的峰值。当实施检测–追踪–隔离措施后,感染规模和每日新增病例数均显著降低,但是仍需要比较强有力的防控措施以达到疫情的防控目标。结论通过定量模型计算表明中国所采取的检测–追踪–隔离措施对于应对疫情的局部暴发是有效的。

Objective To evaluate the effects of different prevention and control measures for infectious diseases,a computational model was established to study the influence of detection-tracking-isolation measures on infectious disease transmission dynamics.Methods We developed a simulation platform utilizing individual-based model and dynamic closecontact networks to simulate the spread of infectious diseases.Based on the dynamic changes of the contract network,the individuals,close contacts,secondary close contacts,and individuals with field exposures were tracked.Different individuals were managed with different control measures,including isolation and clinical detection.We used the model to simulate the epidemic trend after a local outbreak and estimate the changes in the cumulative number of infections and daily new infections.Results In the absence of preventive measures,the incidence of infection increased rapidly after a local outbreak,daily new infections would reach peak within about 7 d.However,if detection-tracking-isolation measures are taken,the incidence of infection and daily new infections would all significantly decreased.Nonetheless,more stringent preventive measures are still needed for the epidemic prevention and control.Conclusion The quantitative model calculations indicate that detectiontracking-isolation measures are the effective in the response to local outbreaks in China.