高质量发展阶段货币政策传导渠道的有效性——基于银行流动性创造的视角

Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in High Quality Development Stage——From the Perspective of Bank Liquidity Creation

提升货币政策传导效率是高质量发展阶段现代中央银行制度建设的客观要求。鉴于我国货币政策面临着“宽货币”难以向“宽信用”传导的梗阻困境,本文从银行流动性创造理论视角提炼高质量发展阶段货币政策传导的典型事实,在此基础上,从流动性创造发挥货币政策中介目标功能应当具备的可控性、相关性和可测性出发,考察货币政策流动性创造渠道的机理,并利用上市银行2016—2022年季度数据展开实证检验。研究发现,在高质量发展阶段,随着金融体制市场化改革不断深入推进,银行经营模式从存贷业务模式向批发业务模式转变、货币政策调控框架从数量型向价格型转变,银行流动性创造渠道会比银行贷款渠道发挥更为关键的作用。中央银行应充分认识到银行流动性创造功能的重要性,并将流动性创造纳入货币政策调控的中介目标体系。

Improving the efficiency of monetary policy transmission is an objective requirement for the construction of modern central bank systems in high-quality development stages.This article aims to extract typical facts of monetary policy transmission in the high-quality development stage from the perspective of bank liquidity creation theory,in the context of the obstruction dilemma of "wide currency" difficult to transmit to "wide credit" in China's monetary policy.Based on this,further starting from the controllability,correlation,and measurability that liquidity creation should possess to play the intermediary target function of monetary policy,this article examines the mechanism of monetary policy liquidity creation channels,and conduct empirical testing using quarterly data from listed banks from 2016 to 2022.Research has found that in the stage of high-quality development,as the market-oriented reform of the financial system continues to deepen,the bank's business model shifts from deposit and loan business model to wholesale business model,and the monetary policy regulatory framework shifts from quantity based to price based.The channel for creating bank liquidity will play a more critical role than the bank loan channel.The central bank should fully recognize the importance of the liquidity creation function of banks and incorporate liquidity creation into the intermediary target system of monetary policy regulation.