二战时期美对德战略轰炸的情报支援问题

Intelligence Support for the U.S.Strategic Bombing of Germany During World War Ⅱ

[研究目的]二战期间美对德战略轰炸的情报支援,是人类情报史上学者参与情报分析的经典案例之一。对其开展历史考察,可以还原二战期间美国情报分析工作的真实面貌,深入了解实证主义情报分析理念以及“兰格学派”的情报分析模式。[研究方法]采用文献史料研究法,以案例分析和归纳分析法,剖析该案例的社会历史背景、分析过程、研究范式、运作特点和影响贡献。[研究结论]美国战略情报局研究分析处组织的“敌方目标委员会”运用经济学“投入—产出”理论,采用实证方法构建战略轰炸目标选择的指标体系和测度模型,分析出在不同战略形势下对德实施战略轰炸的首选目标以及轰炸时间节点,以己方最低成本付出取得最大轰炸效果,对决策者提供了有力的情报支援,不仅赢得欧洲战场的胜利,更推动了情报分析专业化进程。

[Research purpose]The intelligence support for the U.S.strategic bombing of Germany during World War Ⅱ is one of the classic cases of scholars participating in intelligence analysis in the history of human intelligence.A historical investigation can restore the true face of the U.S.intelligence analysis work during World War Ⅱ,and deeply understand the positivist analysis concept and the Langer School's analysis paradigm.[Research method]The article adopts the method of literature and historical data research,systematically analyzes the literature of social and historical background,analysis process,research methods and influences of the case by case analysis and inductive analysis.[Research conclusion]The Enemy Objectives Unit used the Input-output theory and empirical methods to construct an indicator system and measurement model for strategic bombing target selection.It analyzed the preferred targets and bombing time nodes for implementing the strategic bombing of Germany in different strategic situations,and achieved the maximum bombing effect at the lowest cost.It provided intelligence support for decision-makers,not only winning the victory in the European battlefield,but also promoting the professionalization process of intelligence analysis.