基于系统动力学模型的郑州市水资源承载力动态模拟

Study on Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Zhengzhou City Based on System Dynamics Model

水资源问题制约着缺水城市的可持续发展,近年来郑州市社会经济高速发展,其水资源有限的现状与用水需求快速增长之间的矛盾愈加凸显。为科学研究郑州市水资源承载力远期发展情况,根据郑州市经济社会现状的水资源供需和发展状况,采用多系统综合的系统动力学方法(System Dynamics,SD),结合水资源、生态、经济社会、水利工程四个子系统,构建郑州市水资源承载力研究的SD模型。将2010-2019年的历史数据与SD方法的模拟数据进行比较,平均误差均小于10%,具有较高的可信度,可用来预测郑州市未来的水资源承载力发展情况。在此基础上,通过设定现状延续、控污节流、开源控污和开源节流4种不同方案,对2020-2030年水资源承载力系数进行动态模拟预测。结果表明:2030年4种方案下的水资源承载力系数分别为1.24、1.18、1.00、0.89,现状延续和控污节流方案下的郑州市水资源承载力随着时间的推移呈现严重超载状态,无法承载郑州市经济社会的快速发展;开源控污方案在预测期内的水资源承载力超载状态会对经济社会发展产生较大阻力。故开源节流方案为最佳方案,水资源承载力系数小于1,在研究期内未出现超载状态,可有利缓解郑州市的缺水状况,促进经济社会的发展。结合4种方案的优点,提出有利于郑州市水资源可持续发展的建议与对策。

Water resource problems constrain the sustainable development of water-scarce cities.In recent years,Zhengzhou City has experienced rapid social and economic development,and the contradiction between its limited water resources and the rapid growth of water demand has become more and more prominent.In order to scientifically study the long-term development of Zhengzhou city's water resources carrying capacity,according to the current economic and social status of Zhengzhou city's water resources supply and demand and development,the system dynamics method(System Dynamics,abbreviated as SD)of multi-system synthesis is used to construct a SD model for the study of Zhengzhou city's water resources carrying capacity by combining four subsystems:water resources,ecology,economic and social society,and water conservancy engineering.Comparing the historical data from 2010-2019 with the simulation data of the SD method,the average errors are all less than 10%,which has high credibility and can be used to predict the future development of water resources carrying capacity in Zhengzhou city.On this basis,the dynamic simulation of water resources carrying capacity coefficients in 2020-2030 is conducted by setting four different scenarios:continuation of the status quo,pollution control and flow saving,open-source pollution control and open-source flow saving.The results show that:the water resources carrying capacity coefficients under the four scenarios in 2030 are 1.24,1.18,1.00,and 0.89,respectively;the water resources carrying capacity of Zhengzhou under the continuation of the status quo and the pollution control and flow saving scenarios is seriously overloaded over time,and cannot support the rapid economic and social development of Zhengzhou;the water resources carrying capacity overload of the open-source and pollution control scenarios will have a greater resistance to economic and social development;therefore,the open-source flow saving program is the best program.The water resources carrying capacity coefficient is less than 1,and there is no overloaded state in the study period,which can be beneficial to alleviate the water shortage situation in Zhengzhou City,and promote the economic and social development.Combining the advantages of the four options,we put forward suggestions and countermeasures in favor of the sustainable development of water resources in Zhengzhou City.