基于混合仿真试验的建筑拆除废弃物管理减碳减排效益研究

Study on carbon reduction and emission reduction benefits of construction and demolition waste management based on hybrid simulation experiments

建筑拆除废弃物的增加对城市低碳可持续发展造成了严重阻碍。研究旨在探讨以“低碳化”和“无废化”为目标的建筑拆除废弃物管理政策,采用基于主体仿真和系统动力学方法的混合仿真模型,借助Anylogic软件和Java编程语言构建拆除废弃物管理的碳排放仿真试验平台,以评估不同管理策略的减废与减碳效果。研究结果显示:在建筑拆除废弃物的管理过程中,现场管理阶段的碳排放量与废弃物排放量最大,应重点改善;利益主体之间的互动有助于拆除公司向绿色拆除公司转型,提升建筑拆除废弃物管理的减排和减碳效果;源头减量、分类分拣、从量收费和宣传教育政策的组合政策效果最佳,其中的源头减量政策在减碳减排方面发挥了显著作用。研究成果有助于政府制定相关低碳管理政策,推动实现“碳中和”和“无废城市”的目标。

This paper aims to discuss the construction demolition waste management policy aiming at“decarbonization”and“waste-free”.A hybrid simulation model based on the subjective simulation and system dynamics approach is used to construct the demolition waste generation subsystem,treatment subsystem,and evaluation subsystem to reflect the complexity of the construction demolition waste management system.The four sub-systems(namely,the generation sub-system,treatment sub-system,management sub-system,and evaluation sub-system)are constructed to reflect the complexity of the construction and demolition waste management system.By the application of Anylogic software and Java programming language,a carbon emission simulation platform for demolition waste management is constructed,and the waste emission and carbon emission of each stage under different scenarios are compared to evaluate the waste and carbon reduction effect of different management strategies.The results of the study show that in the process of building demolition waste management,the site management stage has the largest carbon and waste emissions,which should be focused on improvement;the interaction between the stakeholders can help demolition companies transform into green demolition companies,and enhance the emission reduction and carbon reduction effect of building demolition waste management;the combination of policies of source reduction,sorting,ad valorem charging,and publicity and education policies has the best effect,of which the source reduction policy plays a significant role in reducing carbon emissions.