中国经济内循环:来自多区域投入产出的演化证据

The Internal Circulation of the Chinese Economy:Evidence from the Evolution of Input-Output in Multiple Regions

促进国内经济循环是新发展格局的重要内容。构建经济内循环的理论分析框架,将经济内循环分为区域内经济循环和区域间经济循环两个层面,在此基础上设计区域内循环、区域间循环的测度方法,并将全国划分为11大区域,重新构建11大区域投入产出表,测度分析2007—2015年中国经济内循环的区域特征、产业特征及其演化趋势。结果表明:(1)2007—2015年,中国各区域内部的循环能力总体得到提升,且长三角地区、黄河中下游地区、京津冀地区的区域内循环能力明显强于其他区域;(2)区域间循环系数整体上升,各区域间的差异缩小,其中京津冀地区、长三角地区、黄河中下游地区及大湾区与国内其他区域的联系最为紧密;(3)从区域内产业循环来看,制造业主要通过后向关联促进区域内循环,服务业主要通过前向关联促进区域内循环;(4)区域间产业循环的平均水平提升,通过后向关联促进区域间循环的产业集中在第二产业部门,通过前向关联促进区域间循环的产业集中在第三产业以及农业部门,京津冀地区、长三角地区、大湾区凭借多项优势产业,成为区域经济循环的引擎。

Promoting domestic economic circulation is an important part of the new development pattern.This paper uses the regional input-output table to construct and analyze the current situation,characteristics and evolution of economic cycle in each major region of China.Based on the analysis of regional input-output tables in 2007,2012 and 2015,the results show that:First,from 2007 to 2015,the internal circulation capacity of each region in China has been improved as a whole,and the internal circulation capacity of the Yangtze River Delta region,the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is significantly stronger than that of other regions;Second,the circulation coefficient among regions also increased as a whole,and the differences among regions narrowed.Among them,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta region,the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River region and Greater Bay Area are most closely connected with other regions in the country;Third,in terms of the size of the industrial cycle in the region,manufacturing industry mainly promotes the regional cycle through backward linkages,while service industry mainly promotes the regional cycle through forward linkages;Fourth,the average level of inter-regional industrial cycle coefficient has increased.Industries that promote inter-regional cycle through backward linkages are also concentrated in the secondary industry,while industries that promote inter-regional cycle through forward linkages are mainly concentrated in the tertiary industry and agriculture.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Yangtze River Delta region and Greater Bay Area have become the engines of regional economic cycle with many advantageous industries.