双碳目标背景下上海新能源汽车保有量及用电需求分析及预测

Analysis and Forecast of New Energy Vehicle Ownership and Electricity Demand in Shanghai under the Dual-Carbon Target

本研究旨在分析和预测在3060双碳目标背景下,上海地区新能源汽车至2060年的保有量及用电需求趋势。通过收集上海新能源汽车历史保有量、行驶里程、能耗水平等数据,运用Gompertz、Logistic时序分析、以及国际对标等方法,得出以下结论:上海地区新能源汽车的保有量逐年增加,增速呈现先快后慢的趋势,预计在2040年左右趋于饱和。饱和值与城市车辆极限保有量和经济发展水平相关,根据人口规模等城市发展条件,若极限保有量越大、经济发展水平越高,则新能源汽车保有量也会越大。此外,不同场景的模拟结果显示,未来新能源汽车用电需求将呈倒U型趋势,大幅增加后略微下降,拐点预计出现在2040年左右。这一变化主要是由新能源汽车保有量达到饱和阶段后电耗的进一步下降所驱动。总体而言,面向3060目标未来上海新能源汽车用电需求的变化将对上海电力系统的科学规划和有效管理提出新的挑战,需要积极采取相应措施来确保电力供应的可靠性和稳定性。

This study aims to analyze and forecast the ownership and electricity demand trends of new energy vehicles(NEVs)in Shanghai up to 2060,in the context of the 3060 carbon neutrality target.By collecting data on historical NEV ownership,mileage,energy consumption levels in Shanghai,and applying methods such as Gompertz,Logistic time series analysis,and international benchmarking,the following conclusions are drawn:The ownership of NEVs in Shanghai is increasing year by year,with the growth rate showing a trend of slowing down after an initial rapid increase,and is expected to reach saturation around 2040.The saturation level is correlated with the maximum vehicle ownership and economic development level of the city.According to urban development conditions such as population size,a larger maximum ownership and higher economic development level will lead to a larger NEV ownership.In addition,simulation results under different scenarios show that future NEV electricity demand will follow an inverted U-shaped trend,with a significant increase followed by a slight decrease,and the infl ection point is expected to occur around 2040.This change is mainly driven by the further decrease in electricity consumption after the NEV ownership reaches saturation stage.Overall,the changing NEV electricity demand towards the 3060 target will pose new challenges for the scientific planning and effective management of Shanghai's power system,and proactive measures need to be taken to ensure the reliability and stability of power supply.