财政货币政策协同:美国样本与中国路径

Fiscal and Monetary Policies Coordination:US Sample and China Path

本文选择大国财政政策为研究对象,从美国财政政策的制度演变和货币政策协同两个维度进行金融史的回溯研究,得出结论:一是美国财政政策呈现制度性和理论性的演变;二是美联储投资美债受“赤字经济学”驱动,外国官方持有存在货币回流效应。在此基础上,本文提出策略建议:一是央行在公开市场上大量购买国债操作不应受理论约束而应评估政策效果;二是国债具有财政功能,购买/发行应体现财政和货币政策的协同;三是发挥基准功能、疏通传导梗阻是国债作为央行货币政策工具的前提条件;四是扩大境外官方长期持有人民币国债规模是大国货币演进的必要环节。

This paper selects the fiscal policy of major countries as the research object,and conducts a retrospective study of the financial history from two dimensions:the institutional evolution of US fiscal policy and the coordination of monetary policy.The conclusion is drawn that firstly,US fiscal policy exhibits institutional and theoretical evolution;secondly,the US Federal Reserve's investment in US bonds is driven by deficit economics,and foreign official holdings have a currency backflow effect.On this basis,this paper puts forward strategic suggestions:first,the central bank's massive purchase of treasury bond in the open market should not be subject to theoretical constraints but should evaluate the policy effect;second,treasury bond is with fiscal function,and the purchase/issuance should reflect the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies;third,“giving play to the benchmark function and unblocking the transmission obstruction”is the prerequisite for treasury bond as the monetary policy tool of the central bank;fourth,expanding the long-term holding of renminbi sovereign bonds by overseas officials is a necessary link in the evolution of major currencies.