基于有序Logistic回归模型的北京高校男生有氧能力

Aerobic Capacity of Male Students in Beijing Colleges and Universities Based on Ordered Logistic Regression Modeling

为探索北京高校男生有氧能力的影响因素,通过随机抽样法抽取134名18~25岁北京高校男生,空腹抽静脉血测血液指标,用德国MetaMax 3B系统实时监测气体代谢,通过线性递增方案测得最大摄氧量(maximum oxygen uptake, VO_(2max))相对值。采用Spearman相关、有序Logistic回归等分析方法进行分析处理。结果表明:回归方程中影响北京高校男生有氧能力的因素有体重(M)、心率(heart rate, HR)、每搏输出量(stroke volume, SV)、心室射血时间(ventricular ejection, VET)、血红蛋白(hemoglobin, HGB)。方程模型系数综合检验步(step)、块(block)、模型(model)检验的P均小于0.01;拟合优度检验的-2对数似然值(-2LL)为159.374,Cox&Snell R^(2)为0.331,Nagelkerke R^(2)为0.373;方程预测等级1准确率为45.5%,等级2准确率为100%,等级3准确率为100%,综合为81.8%,说明Logistic回归模型性能良好。Hosmer和Lemeshow检验预测值与观望值无显著性差异(P>0.05)。可见北京高校男生定量负荷心功能、血液指标与有氧能力的多元Logistic回归模型拟合度较好,且HR、SV、VET、HGB是预测北京高校男生有氧能力的重要因素。同时研究中受试者无需运动至极限状态,运动强度大大降低,可以有效避免运动风险的发生,回归模型的检验结果良好,适合在大样本人群中推广。

In order to explore the influencing factors of aerobic capacity of male students in Beijing colleges and universities,134 male students aged 18~25 years old in Beijing colleges and universities were selected by random sampling method,and venous blood was drawn in fasting to measure the blood indexes,and gas metabolism was monitored in real time with the MetaMax 3B system from Germany,and the relative maximum oxygen uptake(VO_(2)max)was measured by a linear incremental scheme.The results were analyzed and processed based on Spearman's correlation and ordered Logistic regression.The results show that the factors affecting the aerobic capacity of male students in Beijing colleges and universities in the regression equation are body weight(M),heart rate(HR),stroke volume(SV),ventricular ejection time(VET)and hemoglobin(HGB).The P of the combined regression equation model coefficients test step,block,and model tests are less than 0.01.The-2 log likelihood value(-2LL)of the goodness-of-fit test is 159.374,the Cox&Snell R^(2) is 0.331,and the Nagelkerke R^(2) is 0.373.The predicted rank 1 accuracy is 45.5%,rank 2 accuracy is 100%,rank 3 accuracy is 100%,and the combined is 81.8%,indicating that the Logistic regression model performs well.Hosmer and Lemeshow test predicts that there is no significant difference between the predicted values and the observed values(P>0.05).This indicates that the multivariate Logistic regression model of quantitative loading cardiac function,blood indexes and aerobic capacity of male students in Beijing colleges and universities has a good fit,and HR,SV,VET and HGB are important factors to predict aerobic capacity of male students in Beijing colleges and universities.Meanwhile,the subjects do not need to exercise to the limit state,and the intensity of exercise is greatly reduced,which can effectively avoid the occurrence of exercise risk,and the test results of the regression model are better and good,which is suitable for the promotion in a large sample of the population.