中国新经济新动能的测度评价及动态分布特征研究

Research on the Measurement Evaluation and Dynamic Distribution Characteristics of China's New Economy and New Momentum

从新产业、新业态、新技术、新资本4个维度构建中国新经济新动能评价指标体系,利用熵权TOPSIS测度中国新经济新动能发展指数,并借助核密度估计、泰尔指数和收敛模型分析中国新经济新动能的综合发展水平、地区差异及收敛性。结果表明,中国新经济新动能整体呈稳步上升趋势,子系统呈现“新产业>新业态>新技术>新资本”的分布格局;三大区域新经济新动能差异显著,呈现“东部>中部>西部”的发展态势。从地区差异角度而言,中国新经济新动能发展非均衡性逐步凸显,但未发生两极分化现象;中国新经济新动能总体差异呈下降趋势,主要来源为地区间差异。从收敛性看,全国以及三大区域新经济新动能具有显著的σ收敛和绝对β收敛趋势;不同区域新经济新动能条件β收敛具有差异。

This paper constructs the evaluation index system of China's new economy and new momentum from four dimensions including new industries,new business forms,new technology and new capital,uses entropy weight TOPSIS to measure the development index of China's new economy and new momentum from 2015 to 2021,and explores and analyzes the comprehensive development level,regional differences and convergence of China's new economy and new momentum with the help of kernel density estimation,Theil index and convergence model.The results show that on the whole,China's new economy and new momentum show a steady upward trend,and the sub-systems are distributed in the order of“new industry>new business form>new technology>new capital”.There are significant differences in the new economic and new momentum in the three regions,showing a development trend of“eastern>central>western”.From the perspective of regional differences,the non-equilibrium of the development of China's new economy and new momentum has gradually become prominent,but there is no polarization.The overall disparity of new economic and new momentum in China is on the decline,mainly due to regional differences.From the perspective of convergence,the new economy and new momentum of the country and the three regions have a significantσconvergence and absoluteβconvergence trend.The conditionalβconvergence of new economic and new momentum is different in different regions.