基于贝叶斯统计模型的导弹武器系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Missile Weapon Systems Based on Bayesian Statistics Model

基于贝叶斯理论,综合导弹武器系统先验信息以及部件故障数据,建立了其可靠性评估模型,利用MCMC方法进行了计算,得到了可靠性点估计和标准差。研究结果表明:上述模型有效融合部件故障数据评估复杂系统的可靠性,为开展小子样条件系统可靠性评估奠定基础。

Based on the Bayesian theory,this thesis integrates the prior information and parts error data of missile weapon sys-tems,establishes a reliable assessment model,calculates with MCMC method and gests reliability point estimation and criteria gap.The results show the above-mentioned model can effectively integrate the reliability of parts error data assessment system of sys-tems,laying foundation for carrying out assessing the reliability of small sample conditioned systems.