基于系统动力学的居民药膳食疗行为仿真研究

Simulation Study on Medicinal Food Therapy Behavior of Residents Based on System Dynamics

目的:探究居民药膳食疗行为影响因素的演化过程及其演化结果,为促进药膳食疗推广应用提供参考依据。方法:基于前期建立的包含药膳食疗知识、药膳食疗信念、主观规范和知觉行为控制的4个一级指标及17项二级指标的指标体系,确定居民药膳食疗行为影响因素间的因果关系来构造居民药膳食疗行为的系统动力学模型,并进行演化仿真模拟。结果:随着药膳食疗知识、信念、主观规范、知觉行为控制的动态变化,居民药膳食疗行为水平将在40个季度内保持上升趋势,前期上升速度较快,后期上升速度逐渐减缓,影响程度大小依次为知觉行为控制、主观规范、药膳食疗知识和药膳食疗信念。结论:为了有效促进居民药膳食疗行为,应规范药膳研发及制作流程,推动规模应用;重视大数据创新发展,线上线下宣传齐发力;增加药膳食疗知识储备,推动安全管理。

Objective:To explore the evolution process and results of the influencing factors of residents medicinal food therapy,and provide reference for promoting the promotion and application of medicinal food therapy.Methods:Based on the index system of 4 primary indicators and 17 secondary indicators including medicinal food therapy knowledge,belief,subjective norms and perceptual behavior control which established previously,the causal relationship between the influencing factors of residents medicinal food therapy behavior was determined to construct a system dynamics model of residents medicinal food therapy behavior,and the evolution simulation was carried out.Results:With the dynamic change of knowledge,belief,subjective norm,and perceptual behavior control of medicinal food therapy,the level of residents medicinal food therapy behavior will maintain an upward trend in 40 quarters,with a rapid increase in the early stage and a gradual slowdown in the late stage.The degree of influence is in the order of perceptual behavior control,subjective norms,knowledge of medicinal food therapy and beliefs.Conclusion:In order to effectively promote residents medicinal food therapy behavior,it is necessary to standardize the research and development and production process of medicinal food therapy and promote its large-scale application.Emphasize the innovation and development of big data,and work together in online and offline promotion.Increase the knowledge reserve of medicinal food therapy and dietotherapy,and promote safety management.