基于复杂网络的跑道侵入风险因素研究

Research on Risk Factors of Runway Incursion Based on Complex Network

为有效预防跑道侵入事件的发生,首先,对收集到的国内外典型跑道侵入案例进行深入分析,从人为因素、设备因素以及环境因素三个方面出发,挖掘确定了54个风险因素,并由此确定节点及边,建立邻接矩阵;然后,采用Gephi软件构建跑道侵入风险因素复杂网络模型,通过对网络加权度、网络密度、平均路径长度、聚类系数以及介数中心性五个特征指标的分析,确定各风险因素间的联系以及网络的整体特性;最后,采用TOPSIS模型对节点贴近度进行评估以及对节点重要度进行排序,确定网络的关键风险因素。结果表明:机组未正确复诵指令以及机组人员培训不足是跑道侵入事件发生的关键风险因素。

In order to effectively prevent the occurrence of runway incursions,first,this paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the collected typical runway incursions at home and abroad.Starting from the three aspects of human factors,equipment factors and environmental factors,54 risk factors are excavated and determined.The nodes and edges are determined,and adjacency ma-trix is established.Then,Gephi software is used to construct a complex network model of runway incursion risk factors.Through the analysis of five characteristic indicators of network weighting,network density,average path length,clustering coefficient,and be-tweenness centrality,the relationship between the risk factors and the overall characteristics of the network are determined.Finally,the TOPSIS model is used to evaluate the closeness of nodes and rank the importance of nodes to determine the key risk factors of the network.The results show that the flight crew can not read the instructions correctly and the crew training is not enough to be the key risk factors for the runway incursion.