基于FLUS-UGB模型的城镇扩展模拟研究

Research on Urban Expansion Simulation Based on FLUS-UGB Model

优化城镇空间布局结构、提高城镇化质量是新型城镇化发展的必然要求。以南京市为研究区,结合地形地貌、交通、人口等多源数据提取影响因子,依据2015、2019年的土地利用数据利用FLUS-UGB模型模拟南京市2035年城镇空间布局。根据模拟结果,南京市城镇空间扩展呈现一核多点的特征,并依附现有城镇建设地块或向外扩延或向内集聚增长,城镇空间的拓展主要沿长江两岸展开。此项研究可为因地制宜优化区域城镇空间布局、合理划定城镇开发边界,提供参考依据。

Optimizing the urban spatial layout structure and improving the quality of urbanization are the inevitable requirements of the development of new urbanization.This paper takes Nanjing as the research area,extracts driving factors from multi-source data such as topography,traffic and population,and simulates the urban spatial layout of Nanjing in 2035 using the FLUS-UGB model based on the land use data in 2015 and 2019.According to the simulation results,the urban spatial expansion in Nanjing presents the characteristics of one core and multiple points.The expansion of urban construction land shows the trend of relying on the existing plots to expand outward and gather inward.The expansion of urban space is mainly carried out along both sides of the Yangtze River,which provides reference for optimizing regional urban spatial layout according to local conditions and reasonably delineating urban development boundaries.