中国会否丧失世界工厂地位?——国际产业转移新趋势与中国的政策选择

Will China Lose Its Status as the World's Factory?-New Trends in International Industrial Transfer and China's Policy Options

近年来中国部分产业链外迁至越南、印度、墨西哥等国,引发了对中国是否会丧失世界工厂地位的担忧和争论。中国在2001年加入世界贸易组织之后,劳动密集型产业和加工贸易的潜力彻底释放,出口呈现爆炸式增长,成为独一无二的世界工厂。

This paper argues that the current wave of industrial shifts is distinguished by the influence of major power rivalry.The implications for production capacity distribution and product pricing lead to two conclusions:First,the era of single-nation factories,exemplified by China,will end,giving way to a"China+N"multi-factory layout.Second,the era of cheap laborintensive industries will conclude.AsEAN is poised to replace China as the global supplier of final goods,while China will take on Japan and South Korea's role in providing intermediate goods to ASEAN.For China,the path forward requires adapting to these changes by leveraging industrial transfers for structural upgrading and navigating the challenges posed by major power competition.