负面经济冲击下中小微企业的挑战与调整

The Challenges and Adjustments of Micro,Small and Medium-sized Enterprises under Negative Economic Shocks

基于中国企业创新创业调查(ESIEC)2018年和2023年两轮数据,本文以新冠疫情冲击为例,系统考察了负面经济冲击下,中小微企业所面临的挑战和做出的调整。本文发现:①负面冲击在供给侧对中小微企业的影响主要体现在供应链断裂导致的“停摆效应”;②为应对负面冲击在供给侧的冲击,强化供应链韧性,企业需要系统调整供应商数量和空间布局,同时也承担了更高的交通、交易成本,这些调整在产业集聚程度较低的地区表现更为明显;③负面冲击在需求侧对中小微企业的影响主要体现在市场萎缩带来的“紧缩效应”;④为应对负面冲击在需求侧的冲击,企业需要进一步发掘客户资源,强化创新力度,调整商业模式,从而保证市场规模,提高盈利能力,而能否及时、有效地进行这些调整与企业和企业家的资源、背景高度相关;⑤负面冲击对企业营收和毛利润率造成显著的负面影响,并可能导致“疤痕效应”,迟滞中小微企业的恢复和发展。上述发现有助于理解后疫情时代影响中小微企业恢复进程的关键机制,也为有针对性地设计助企纾困政策,实现经济高效、均衡复苏,提供了理论依据和实证证据。

Small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)have made important contributions to China s economic development.However,SMEs generally exhibit weak resilience and are constrained by limited capacities of financing and risk sharing.When facing negative economic shocks,they often lack the resources and capabilities to adjust and alleviate difficulties.Therefore,what challenges will SMEs face under negative economic shocks?How will these challenges hinder SMEs from recovery and growth?What adjustments will they make to cope with these challenges?How will negative economic shocks affect the development of SMEs in the medium and long term?Answering these questions not only holds clear theoretical significance but also practical significance and policy implications,especially today when many SMEs have not fully recovered from the negative economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.Based on data from two rounds of the Enterprise Survey for Innovation and Entrepreneurship in China(ESIEC)conducted in 2018 and 2023,we attempt to answer the series of questions raised above using the COVID-19 pandemic as a typical negative economic shock.The ESIEC is a field survey conducted by Peking University on private enterprises in China.In 2018,the research team conducted the first baseline survey,covering 6198 firms and accumulating quite detailed enterprise data.In 2023,the research team conducted the second large-scale field survey,completing on-site surveys for 6117 enterprises and investigating the challenges encountered by enterprises during the pandemic and their responses.The two rounds of surveys happened to span the COVID-19 pandemic,providing us with an opportunity to systematically evaluate the impacts of negative economic shocks on SMEs,the underlying mechanisms,and to detail the adjustments made by SMEs to cope with these shocks.In this paper,we employ a“quasi-difference-in-differences”model to examine the challenges faced by SMEs under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,as well as the strategies they adopted in response and adjustment,taking advantage of the variation in strength of pandemic control measures across regions and over time.We find that:①The pandemic influences the supply side of SMEs mainly due to the“shutdown”effect caused by supply chain disruptions.②To cope with the impact of the pandemic on the supply side and strengthen the resilience of the supply chain,SMEs need to systematically adjust the size and spatial layout of the supplier network,but at the same time bearing higher transportation and transaction costs.This effect is more pronounced in regions with lower industrial agglomeration.③The pandemic affects the demand side of SMEs mainly due to the“contraction”effect brought about by market shrinkage.④To cope with the impact of the pandemic on the demand side,SMEs need to further explore customer resources,strengthen innovation efforts,and adjust business models to ensure market size and increase profitability.Whether these adjustments can be made in a timely and effective manner is highly correlated with the resources and backgrounds of the enterprises and entrepreneurs.⑤The pandemic has significantly negative effects on revenue and gross profit,and may lead to a“scarring effect”delaying the recovery and development of SMEs.These findings contribute to our understanding of the key mechanisms for the recovery of SMEs in the post-pandemic era.They also provide theoretical insights and empirical evidence for the targeted design of policies to assist SMEs,facilitating an efficient and balanced economic recovery.Specifically,the“scarring effect”of the negative economic shock like the COVID-19 pandemic may hinder the development of SMEs in the medium and long term not only due to the persistent impacts of the“shutdown”and“contraction”effects but also largely due to a series of adjustments made by enterprises in response to the shock.Policymakers should consider aligning relief policies with the adjustments made by enterprises themselves to amplify policy impacts,thereby effectively promoting and accelerating the recovery of enterprises and the economy.At the same time,negative economic shocks often lead to a“reshuffling”of the market landscape.Enterprises that can adjust promptly and effectively,and even capitalize on opportunities to upgrade,often gain greater competitive advantages and market share after the shock,potentially leading to changes in market structure and even widening regional disparities.Therefore,in policy design for the post-pandemic era,it is also necessary to fully consider the balance between enterprises and between regions,thus achieving economic recovery efficiently and equitably.