绿色技术创新对城市产业链韧性的影响——基于2005-2021年277座城市面板数据的实证检验

Study on the Impact of Green Technology Innovation on the Urban Industrial Chain Resilience——Empirical Test Based on the Panel Data of 277 Cities from 2005 to 2021

本文基于2005-2021年277座城市面板数据,运用固定效应模型、中介效应模型、门槛回归模型等对绿色技术创新的城市产业链韧性提升作用进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:绿色技术创新对城市产业链韧性提升具有显著正向促进效应且结论具有稳健性;产业结构升级在绿色技术创新对产业链韧性提升的正向促进影响中存在中介效应;当绿色技术创新水平突破门槛值后,绿色技术创新对产业链韧性提升的促进效应变得更加显著;当环境规制强度超过门槛值后,环境规制对城市产业链韧性提升的促进效应会因挤出效应的上升而显著减弱;不同水平的绿色技术创新、物质资本和文化资本投入以及人力资本积累下,绿色技术创新对城市产业链韧性提升的影响具有显著异质性特征。据此提出了相关政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 277 cities from 2005 to 2021,this paper empirically tests the impact of green technology innovation on the urban industrial chain resilience by using fixed effect model,mediating effect model and threshold regression model.The results show that:green technology innovation has a significant positive promotion effect on the urban industrial chain resilience and the conclusion is robust;industrial structure upgrading has a mediating effect on the positive promotion effect of green technology innovation on the urban industrial chain resilience;when the level of green technology innovation breaks through the threshold value,the promotion effect of green technology innovation on the urban industrial chain resilience becomes more significant;when the intensity of environmental regulation exceeds the threshold value,the promotion effect of environmental regulation on the urban industrial chain resilience will be significantly weakened due to the rise of crowding-out effect;at different levels of green technology innovation,physical and cultural capital investment and human capital accumulation,the impact of green technology innovation on the urban industrial chain resilience has significant heterogeneity.Accordingly,relevant policy recommendations are put forward.