行业比较优势的显现与维持——基于知识溢出和政策干预视角

Emergence and maintenance of industry comparative advantage--The perspective of knowledge spillover and policy intervention

新行业比较优势如何出现以及优势行业如何维持是探究经济增长路径的根本问题.本文使用2010–2020年各省133万家企业注册大数据研究了知识溢出和政策干预对比较优势显现和维持的影响,并从行业特征和省份特征层面进行了多种异质性探讨.研究发现,知识溢出促进了新行业比较优势的出现,但只有省份内部关联行业之间的知识溢出有利于已有比较优势的维持.全国层面的产业政策没有提升被扶持行业比较优势出现的概率,但增加了重点发展行业的份额.发展比较优势方面,高知识含量和高地理集中度的行业在知识溢出中得到的收益较低;中西部省份和专业化程度高的省份在行业发展时更依赖于省份间知识溢出.进一步分析发现,发达的公路系统有助于增强省份之间知识溢出对行业发展的促进作用,人口净流入高的省份充当知识外溢的角色.省份之间的知识溢出对重点行业发展政策的发挥有正向调节作用.本文的研究为提升行业多样性提供了经验证据.

The fundamental question in exploring the path of economic growth is how emerging industries gain and maintain their comparative advantages.This paper investigates the impact of knowledge spillovers and policy interventions on the emergence and sustainability of comparative advantages,using big data from 1.33 million registered enterprises across provinces from 2010 to 2020.It conducts various heterogeneous analyses at the industry and provincial levels to explore this issue in depth.The study finds that knowledge spillovers contribute to the emergence of new industry comparative advantages.However,only knowledge spillovers among related industries within a province facilitate the maintenance of existing comparative advantages.National-level industrial policies do not increase the probability of the emergence of supported industry comparative advantages but enhance the share of targeted industries.Regarding the development of comparative advantages,industries with high knowledge intensity and geographic concentration receive lower benefits from knowledge spillovers.Provinces in the central and western regions and those with higher specialization rely more on inter-provincial knowledge spillovers during industry development.Further analysis reveals that a developed highway system enhances the promotion effect of inter-provincial knowledge spillovers on industry development,while provinces with a high net inflow of population act as knowledge spillover sources.Inter-provincial knowledge spillovers positively moderate the effectiveness of development policies for targeted industries.This research provides empirical evidence for enhancing industry diversity.