中国多区域生产消费方式转型对珠江流域用水的影响

EFFECTS OF CHINA’S MULTI-REGIONAL TRANSITIONS OF PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PATTERNS ON WATER USE IN THE PEARL RIVER BASIN

社会经济系统与流域水系统构成了流域复合生态系统,探究了流域内外生产消费方式转型对流域用水量的影响可为流域复合生态系统的水资源管理提供新思路。以珠江流域复合生态系统为例,基于环境投入产出模型和结构分解分析追踪了2007—2017年中国多区域生产消费方式转型对珠江流域用水的影响。结果表明:流域外最终需求驱动了珠江流域20%~23%的用水,且流域外生产消费方式转型对珠江流域用水量的贡献不容忽略。浙江、河北等地对珠江流域用水增量贡献较大;上海、北京对流域用水减量贡献超过流域内除广西和广东外的其他省份,主要归因于最终需求结构优化。用水强度降低是促进流域用水量减少的重要因素。然而,除通过生产侧节水措施降低流域内用水强度外,亟须突破以末端控制为主的水资源管理思路,从多区域复合生态系统视角关注流域内外各地区的协同生产消费方式转型,同时从需求侧调控带动全产业链节水。

The basin compound ecosystem consists of the socioeconomic system and natural water system.Exploring the effects of production and consumption pattern transitions within and outside the basin on water uses in the basin can provide new insights into water resource management of the basin compound ecosystem.Based on the environmentally extended multiregional input-output model and structural decomposition analysis,this study investigated the effects of China’s multi-regional transitions of production and consumption patterns on water use changes in the Pearl River Basin from 2007 to 2017.Results showed that the final demand from outside the basin drove 20%to 23%of water use in the Pearl River Basin.Zhejiang and Hebei contributed significantly to the water use increments in the Pearl River Basin.In contrast,Shanghai and Beijing were vital in reducing water use.These two provinces contributed even more than those within the basin(except for Guangxi and Guangdong),mainly attributed to their optimizations of the final demand structure.The decline in water use intensity is a critical factor contributing to the water use reductions in the Pearl River Basin.However,in addition to improving water use efficiency within the basin,it is urgent to break through the end-of-pipe control-oriented approach for water resource management.This study proposed that water resource management in the Pearl River Basin should take a multi-regional compound ecosystem perspective.Policymakers should pay attention to collaborative transitions of production and consumption patterns of both in-basin and out-of-basin regions,and reduce water uses of the whole supply chain from the demand perspective.