中国对“一带一路”沿线国家石油投资的风险评估研究

Research on Risk Assessment of China's Oil Investment in Countries along the"Belt and Road"

为全面评估我国对“一带一路”沿线国家的石油投资风险情况,选取2010—2021年期间36个“一带一路”沿线国家的数据,从政治、经济、市场、资源潜力和双边合作5个方面构建风险评估指标体系,基于因子分析法和熵值法评估我国对沿线国家的石油投资综合风险水平。研究表明:“一带一路”沿线国家的石油资源丰富,但存在资源地域分布不均、发展中国家石油资源开发能力有限、产消比例不均衡等问题;在36个“一带一路”沿线国家中,我国对叙利亚进行石油投资的政治风险最高,捷克的政治风险最低。建议在“一带一路”倡议下推进石油投资保护协议的制定,健全对外石油投资风险监测平台,完善财务管理和经济风险预防制度等措施来防范石油投资的相关风险。

In order to comprehensively evaluate the risks of China's oil investment in countries along the Belt and Road,the data of 36 countries along the Belt and Road from 2010 to 2021 were selected to construct a risk assessment index system from five aspects:politics,economy,market,resource potential and bilateral cooperation.Based on factor analysis method and entropy value method,the comprehensive risk level of China's oil investment to the countries along the route was measured.The research shows that the countries along the"Belt and Road"are rich in oil resources,but there are some problems such as uneven geographical distribution of resources,limited development capacity of oil resources in developing countries,and unbalanced production and consumption ratio.Among the 36 countries along the Belt and Road,China's oil investment in Syria has the highest political risk,while the Czech Republic has the lowest political risk.It is suggested to promote the formulation of oil investment protection agreements under the"Belt and Road"Initiative,improve the risk monitoring platform for foreign oil investment,perfect the financial management and economic risk prevention system and other measures to prevent the risks related to oil investment.