中国一次能源安全测度与评价--基于能源智能化转型的视角

Measurement and Evaluation of China's Primary Energy Security--Based on the Perspective of Energy Intelligent Transformation

选取能源供给安全、经济安全、消费安全、环境安全和智能安全5个维度构建中国能源安全评价指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS模型对2005—2025年中国能源安全水平进行测度及评价,并利用灰色关联分析法探究影响中国能源安全水平的重要因素。结果表明:2005—2020年中国能源安全水平呈现先降低后升高的趋势,在2019年迎来拐点,能源安全在拐点后处于“较安全”等级,且2021—2025年能源安全水平有进一步的提升空间。提出在持续推进能源清洁化、绿色化转型的同时,还应加快能源产业的数字智能化发展,积极推进构建智慧能源体系。

Five dimensions of energy supply security,economic security,consumption security,environmental security and intelligent security were selected to construct China's energy security evaluation index system.Entropy weight TOPSIS model was used to measure and evaluate China's energy security level from 2005 to 2025,and grey correlation analysis method was used to explore the important factors affecting China's energy security level.The research results show that:from 2005 to 2020,China's energy security level presents a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,and this trend ushered in a turning point in 2019,and energy security is in a"relatively safe"level after the turning point,and there is further room for improvement in 2021-2025.It is proposed that while continuing to promote the clean and green energy transformation,it should also accelerate the digital intelligent development of the energy industry and actively promote the construction of a smart energy system.