货币政策不确定性与企业债务成本

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Debt Costs

降低企业债务融资成本是促进实体经济高质量发展的重要举措。选取2007—2020年A股非金融上市公司数据,系统考察货币政策不确定性对企业债务成本的影响。研究结果表明,货币政策不确定性与企业债务成本显著正相关。影响机制分析发现,债务违约概率是货币政策不确定性影响企业债务成本的中间变量,即货币政策不确定性上升会增加企业债务违约概率,从而导致企业债务成本上升。异质性分析发现,货币政策不确定性对非国有企业、小规模企业及非周期性行业企业债务成本的正向影响更加明显。研究表明降低货币政策不确定性对于缓解企业债务成本压力具有重要作用。

Reducing corporate debt financing costs is an important measure to promote high-quality development of the real economy.Select the data of A-share non-financial listed companies from 2007 to 2020,this article systematically examines how monetary policy uncertainty affects corporate debt costs.The results show that monetary policy uncertainty is significantly positively related to corporate debt costs.The analysis of the impact mechanism finds that debt default probability is the intermediate variable through which monetary policy uncertainty affects corporate debt costs.Rising uncertainty in monetary policy increases the probability of corporate debt defaults,leading to an increase in corporate debt costs.Heterogeneity analysis finds that monetary policy uncertainty has a more obvious positive impact on the debt costs of non-state-owned corporates,small-scale corporates and corporates in non-cyclical industries.Research has shown the important role of reducing monetary policy uncertainty in easing corporate debt cost pressures.