组态视角下我国薯类作物绿色生产效率提升路径研究——基于DEA-Malmquist与fsQCA方法

Research on the path of improving green production efficiency of tuber crops in China from the perspective of configuration——Based on DEA-Malmquist and fsQCA methods

绿色生产是实现农业现代化、推动农业高质量发展的重要举措,薯类作为我国第四大主粮作物,其绿色生产效率是促进薯类作物稳产保供,实现绿色、高效可持续发展的重要保障。文章构建了薯类作物绿色生产效率测度的指标体系,运用DEA-Malmquist指数(曼昆斯特指数),本文选取我国31个省份(自治区、直辖市,不包括中国香港地区、澳门地区和台湾地区) 2000—2020年薯类作物绿色生产效率的演变趋势和空间差异进行分析,并从自然因素、技术因素、社会因素3个方面选择受灾率、有效灌溉面积、城镇化率、劳动力素质、农业财政支持力度5个条件变量,运用模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA)对其提升路径进行研究,探究其核心因素、关键因素以及根本因素。研究结果表明:1)从演变趋势看,薯类作物绿色生产效率整体上增长幅度相对稳定,且增长动力存在显著的区域性差异。2)从空间上看,薯类作物绿色生产效率发展不平衡,且绿色生产率稳步增长的省份以黄淮地区和东北三省为主,大多集中在秦岭—淮河以北地区;绿色生产效率下降的省份分布相对分散,涉及华中、华南、西南部分省份。3)从提升路径看,主要有“城镇化水平”主导型、“农业基础设施+财政支持”主导型、“农业基础设施+受教育程度+技术创新”推动型、“受教育程度+城镇化水平+技术创新”推动型4条提升路径。其中,财政支持力度是提升薯类作物绿色生产效率的核心因素,技术创新是关键因素,人力资本是前提条件与根本保障。基于此,提出鼓励绿色新技术研发、加强基础设施建设、保障农业劳动力等建议,以此促进我国薯类作物绿色生产效率的提升。

Green production is not only an important driving force for achieving agricultural modernization,but also an important measure for promoting high-quality agricultural development.The efficiency of green agricultural production is an important indicat-or of the sustainable development of green agriculture.More importantly,as an important staple crop in China,the green production efficiency of tuber crops is an important indicator for promoting stable yield and ensuring a sufficient supply.Simultaneously,it is an important guarantee for achieving green,efficient and sustainable agricultural development.In this study,we selected land input,labor input,fertilizer application,pesticide application,agricultural film use,agricultural diesel use,agricultural machinery power in-put and water resource input as input indicators,potato yield as expected output,and carbon emissions as unexpected outputs to con-struct an indicator system for measuring the green production efficiency of tuber crops.The DEA-Malmquist index was used to meas-ure the green production efficiency of tuber crops in 31 provinces(autonomous regions or municipalities;Hong Kong region,Macao region and Taiwan region of China were not included in this study)selected in China between 2000 and 2020.Based on this,the evolutionary trend and spatial differences were investigated.Five conditional variables(namely disaster rate,effective irrigation area,financial support for agriculture,labor quality,and urbanization rate)were selected from three aspects(i.e.natural,technological,and social factors).A fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method was used to study the improvement pathway of the green production efficiency of tuber crops,and the core,key and fundamental factors for improving the green production efficiency of tuber crops were thoroughly explored.The research results indicate as following.1)From the perspective of evolutionary trend,the overall growth rate of the green production efficiency of tuber crops in China is relatively stable;however,the growth drivers vary significantly across regions.2)From the spatial perspective,green production efficiency of tuber crops in China has developed unevenly.The provinces with steady growth of green production efficiency of tuber crops are mainly in the Huanghuai Region and the three northeastern provinces,most of which are concentrated in the northern region of the Qinling-Huaihe River.The distribution of provinces with reduced green production efficiency of tuber crops is relatively scattered,including several in central,southern,and southwestern China.3)From the perspective of improvement pathway,mainly four types are present:“urbanization level”leading type,“agricultural infrastructure+financial support”leading type,“agricultural infrastructure+education level+technological innovation”driving type,and“educa-tion level+urbanization level+technological innovation”driving type.Financial support for agriculture are core factors in increas-ing the green production efficiency of tuber crops.Technological innovation is critical for increasing the green production efficiency of tuber crops.Human capital is a prerequisite and fundamental guarantee for improving the green production efficiency of tuber crops.Based on this,this article proposes stimulating research and development of novel green technologies,strengthening infrastruc-ture construction,and ensuring agricultural labor to improve green production efficiency of tuber crops in China.