长三角地区区域间动态产业关联效应分析:基于中国区域间投入产出表的测度

Analysis of Inter-regional Dynamic Industrial Correlation Effects in the Yangtze River Delta Region:Measurement Based on China's Inter-regional Input-output Tables

本文基于我国区域间投入产出表,构建了长三角地区区域间投入产出表,首次测度了长三角三省一市的区域间动态产业关联效应。研究发现:从区域间动态关联情况来看,上海和浙江受到的长三角内部推动力在上升,江苏由依靠沪浙皖推动发展转变为依靠自身发展,安徽受到的长三角内部推动力波动大,增长不明显,且具有封闭发展趋势;在区域间静态关联上,上海和安徽维持了较强的输出能力,而江苏显示出较强的接受能力,浙江则经历了由强接受能力向强输出能力的转变;综合来看,2010—2017年长三角一体化水平波动较大,提升也不明显,且区域间三次产业结构关联效应也表现出几乎同样的趋势。研究表明:未来长三角一体化水平的提升需要结合三省一市各自的产业优势,强化上海作为长三角“龙头”的持续输出能力,提升江苏的推动能力和浙江的产业关联水平,加强江浙沪地区对安徽的推动能力。

Based on the inter-regional input-output table of China,this study constructed the interregional input-output tables of the Yangtze River Delta region and,for the first time,measured the interregional dynamic industrial linkage effects among the three provinces and one municipality in the Yangtze River Delta.The study found that in terms of inter-regional dynamic linkage,the driving force from within the Yangtze River Delta to Shanghai and Zhejiang is increasing,Jiangsu has shifted from relying on the development driven by Shanghai-Zhejiang-Anhui region to relying on its own development,and Anhui has shown a significant increase in the fluctuation of the driving force from within the Yangtze River Delta,with no obvious increase and a trend towards closed development.Regarding inter-regional static linkage,Shanghai and Anhui have maintained strong output capabilities,while Jiangsu has demonstrated strong receptive capabilities,and Zhejiang has experienced a transition from strong receptive capabilities to strong output capabilities.In summary,the level of integration in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2017 fluctuated significantly with no obvious improvement,and the inter-regional linkage effects of the three industries also exhibited almost the same trend.The study indicates that the future enhancement of the level of integration in the Yangtze River Delta requires leveraging the industrial advantages of the three provinces and one municipality,enhancing Shanghai's sustained output capabilities as the"leader"of the Yangtze River Delta,improving the driving force of Jiangsu,the industrial linkage level of Zhejiang,and strengthening the driving force of the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region on Anhui.