中国区域产业结构变化测度及变化模式分析

Measurement of Regional Industrial Structure Changes in China and Analysis of Change Patterns

利用就业数据,考察中国地区产业结构差异性;借鉴古典σ收敛测算方法,测算中国2003-2020年产业结构变化趋势,并根据测度结果将产业结构变化区分为一般结构趋同、一般结构趋异、结构稳定,以及结构稳定与趋同趋异组合等4类共7种模式。研究发现:中国产业结构的变化存在以2010、2011年的分界点,分界点前后3次产业结构变化趋势存在明显差异,且与产业发展情况密切相关;随着产业的不断发展,产业结构变化趋势会沿着“一般结构趋异—产业结构稳定—一般结构趋同”模式转换。

This paper examines the regional industrial structure variability in China using employment data.Based on the classicalσconvergence measure,the trend of industrial structure change in China between 2003 and 2020 is measured,and the industrial structure change is distinguished into four patterns:general structural convergence,general structural convergence,structural stability,and a combination of structural stability and convergence and divergence,which are divided into seven patterns in total.This paper finds that the change of China's industrial structure has a cut-off point in 2010 and 2011,and there are obvious differences in the change trends of the three industrial structures before and after the cut-off point,which are closely related to the industrial development.With the continuous development of industry,the trend of industrial structure change will shift along the pattern of"general structure divergence-industrial structure stability-general structure convergence.