数字技术创新对制造业绿色全要素生产率影响的门槛效应

Threshold Effect of Digital Technology Innovation Empowering Green Total Factor Productivity in China’s Manufacturing Industry

制造业作为一个碳排放量较高的行业,其绿色发展已经成为我国实现“双碳”战略目标的重中之重,如何促进制造业的绿色发展是当今重要的研究话题。基于中国30个省份(因数据缺失,未包括西藏地区和港澳台地区)2006—2021年的统计资料,在以环境规制为门槛变量的情况下,实证分析数字技术创新赋能制造业绿色全要素生产率增长的非线性效应。研究发现,数字技术创新对制造业绿色全要素生产率的提升具有显著的积极影响;数字技术创新对制造业绿色全要素生产率的影响呈现非线性关系,具有以环境规制为门槛变量的单一门槛效应;当环境规制强度小于门槛值时,数字技术创新对促进制造业绿色全要素生产率的增长具有较强的正向推动作用,而当环境规制强度大于门槛值时,数字技术创新对制造业绿色全要素生产率增长的推动作用大幅度降低;当地区数字技术创新水平达到一定程度后,门槛效应才开始显著,数字技术创新水平过低时,环境规制强度对数字技术创新促进制造业绿色全要素生产率增长的影响较小。

As an industry with high carbon emissions,the green development of the manufacturing industry has become a top priority for China to achieve the“dual carbon”strategic goal.How to promote the green development of the manufacturing industry is an important research topic.Based on statistical data from 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2021(due to the lack of data,the statistical data mentioned here do not include the Tibet Autonomous Region,the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,the Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province),the nonlinear effect of digital technology innovation on green total factor productivity growth in the manufacturing industry under the threshold variable of environmental regulation was empirically analyzed.It is found that digital technology innovation has a significant positive impact on the improvement of green total factor productivity in the manufacturing industry.The impact of digital technology innovation on green total factor productivity in the manufacturing industry presents a non-linear relationship,with a single threshold effect under environmental regulation as the threshold variable.When the intensity of environmental regulation is less than the threshold,digital technology innovation has a strong positive driving effect on the growth of green total factor productivity in the manufacturing industry.However,when the intensity of environmental regulation is greater than the threshold,the driving effect of digital technology innovation on the growth of green total factor productivity in the manufacturing industry is significantly reduced.The threshold effect is only significant when the level of regional digital technology innovation reaches a certain level.When the level of digital technology innovation is too low,the impact of environmental regulation intensity on the green total factor productivity growth empowered by enterprise digital technology innovation is relatively small.