老龄化视角下社会保障支出对劳动者就业的影响

Impact of Social Security Expenditure on Employment of Workers from the Perspective of Aging

选择2009—2019年全国各省份的省级面板数据,通过面板固定模型和交互作用分析,研究了社会保障支出在人口老龄化背景下对就业的影响和机制。研究发现,社会保障支出增加能促进就业;人口老龄化程度加深抑制就业;社会保障支出增加能抑制人口老龄化对就业的负影响;社会保障支出对就业的促进作用存在区域异质性,高老龄化地区的社会保障支出增加更有利于促进就业的增长,经济发达地区的社会保障支出增加促进就业增长,经济欠发达地区的社会保障支出增加抑制就业增长。

Selecting provincial-level panel data from various provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2019,the impact and mechanism of social security expenditures on employment from the perspective of population aging through panel fixed models and interaction analysis were explored.Research has found that an increase in social security spending can promote employment.The deepening degree of population aging suppresses employment.An increase in social security expenditure can suppress the negative impact of population aging on employment.There is regional heterogeneity in the positive impact of social security expenditure on employment.An increase in social security expenditure in high aging areas is more conducive to promoting employment growth,while an increase in social security expenditure in economically developed areas promotes employment growth,while an increase in social security expenditure in economically underdeveloped areas suppresses employment growth.