中央和地方“十四五”应急管理政策规划文本量化研究——基于“X-Y-Z”三维政策工具分析框架

Quantitative Study on the 14th Five-year Plan Emergency Management Policy Planning Text:Based on the“X-Y-Z”Three-dimensional Policy Tool Analysis Framework

发展应急管理事业是人民生命、财产安全及身体健康的重要保障。“十四五”时期,党中央和各地方陆续颁布一系列应急管理政策规划,以期推进应急管理事业发展。采用内容分析法,对国务院以及北京、天津、河北、山西、内蒙古等28个省份颁布的29份应急管理政策规划文本进行分析,构建政策工具(X轴)-政策目标(Y轴)-政策主题特征(Z轴)三维分析框架;在此基础上,对政策文本中的具体政策条文进行编码加以量化分析,并运用ROSTCM6计量分析软件对政策文本主题词进行分析。研究发现,在中央和地方“十四五”应急管理政策规划文本中,环境型政策工具的使用最充足,而需求型政策工具使用不足;不同政策目标对应的政策条文数量差异较大;政策工具、政策目标和政策主题特征三维度之间存在较强联系。最后指出,坚定“预防为主”理念,协调政策工具箱合力等是推动应急管理事业发展的重要策略。

The development of emergency management is an important guarantee for people’s life,property safety and health.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the CPC Central Committee and other local governments have successively promulgated a series of emergency management policies and plans in order to promote the development of emergency management.In this paper,29 copies of emergency management policy planning text issued by the State Council,Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shanxi and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were analyzed and the policy tool(X axis)-policy objective(Y axis)-policy theme feature(Z axis)were constructed.On this basis,the specific policy provisions in the policy text were coded and analyzed by ROSTCM6 measurement analysis software.It is found that in the central and local 14th Five-Year emergency management policy planning text,environmental policy tools are the most fully used,while demand policy tools are insufficient.The number of policy provisions for different policy objectives varies greatly.There are strong connections between policy tools,policy objectives and policy theme characteristics.Finally,it is pointed out that it is an important strategy to promote the development of emergency management to strengthen the concept of“prevention first”and coordinate the synergy of policy toolbox.