基于系统动力学的农产品供应链韧性演化分析

Evolution of Agricultural Product Supply Chain Based on System Dynamics

农产品供应链具有多环节、多参与主体、外部环境复杂等特点,面对外部冲击时数字化手段具有一定作用。从系统角度出发依据韧性内涵提取相关影响因素,并与数字化手段关联,运用系统动力学构建因素间动态关联的农产品供应链韧性影响因素模型。结果表明,农产品供应链韧性随时间推移呈递增趋势,相比单独进行设施建设,关注经济政策发展与组织管理建设的韧性优化方案效果更好,全生命周期下农产品供应链韧性的提升需全局综合调控。

The agricultural product supply chain has the characteristics of multiple links,multiple participating entities,and a complex external environment.When facing external shocks,digital means play a certain role.Starting from a system perspective,relevant influencing factors were extracted based on the connotation of resilience,and correlated with digital means.A dynamic correlation model of agricultural product supply chain resilience influencing factors was constructed using system dynamics.The results indicate that the resilience of the agricultural product supply chain is increasing over time.Compared to facility construction alone,the resilience optimization plan that focuses on economic policy development and organizational management construction is more effective.The improvement of the resilience of the agricultural product supply chain throughout its entire lifecycle requires comprehensive global regulation.