北盘江流域社会生态系统脆弱性时空演变与模拟

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Simulation of Social-Ecological System Vulnerability in the Beipanjiang River Basin

[目的]评估和模拟北盘江流域社会生态系统脆弱性,对筑牢珠江上游生态屏障、实现流域可持续发展具有重要意义。[方法]采用显式空间脆弱性模型,从暴露度、敏感性、适应能力3个维度构建评价指标体系,评估北盘江流域脆弱性,并使用有序加权平均算子模拟不同决策风险下的脆弱性情景。[结果](1)2000—2020年,北盘江流域脆弱性程度明显下降,高脆弱区面积占比由13.82%降到8.37%,低脆弱区面积占比由10.66%增加到17.62%。(2)20年间北盘江流域社会生态系统脆弱性整体处于中等脆弱水平,平均占比32%,空间变化呈现“西北、东南低,中部高”的分布格局。(3)从情景模拟分析上看,在可持续导向型中应重视风险环境的胁迫,加强生态环境保护与适应能力建设,在经济优先型中应强调发展与保护并重,加强绿色基础设施建设,缓解系统脆弱性。[结论]北盘江流域脆弱性程度明显降低,情景模拟结果可满足不同政策指导下的流域发展需要,并为北盘江流域国土空间生态修复和区域可持续发展提供理论参考。

[Objective]The aim of this study is to assess and model the vulnerability of social-ecological systems in the Beipanjiang River Basin,which is of great significance for building an ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Pearl River and realizing sustainable development in the basin.[Methods]An explicit spatial vulnerability model was used to construct an evaluation index system from three dimensions,namely,exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity,to assess the vulnerability of the Beipanjiang River Basin,and to simulate the vulnerability scenarios under different decision-making risks using an ordered weighted average operator.[Results](1)From^(2)000 to 2020,the vulnerability of the Beipanjiang River Basin decreased significantly,with the proportion of highly vulnerable areas decreasing from 13.82%to 8.37%,and the proportion of low vulnerable areas increasing from 10.66%to 17.62%.(2)The overall vulnerability of social-ecological system in the Beipanjiang River Basin in the past 20 years was at a medium level,accounting for 32%on average,and the spatial variation showed the distribution pattern of low level in the northwest and southeast,high level in the middle.(3)From the perspective of scenario simulation analysis,the attention should be paid to the stress of risk environment,the construction of ecological environment protection and adaptive capacity should be strengthened,and both development and protection in the economic priority model should be emphasized,green infrastructure to ease systemic fragility should be strengthened.[Conclusion]The degree of vulnerability of the Beipanjiang River Basin is significantly reduced,and the results of the scenario simulation can meet the needs of watershed development under the guidance of different policies and provide theoretical references for the ecological restoration of the land space in the Beipanjiang River Basin and the sustainable development of the region.