近30年来河南省国土“三生”空间转型特征及其情景模拟

Spatial Transformation Characteristics and Scenario Simulation for‘Production-Living-Ecology’Space of Henan Province′s Land in the Last 30 Years

[目的]探究河南省国土空间用地变化规律,为当地国土综合管理及规划调控提供重要依据。[方法]基于1990—2020年土地利用数据、自然资源及社会经济等多源数据,构建了“三生”空间分类体系并运用地学信息图谱论,揭示国土“三生”空间转型信息规律,继而采用未来土地利用模拟模型(FLUS)模拟了其转型态势。[结果]河南省的国土以农业生产空间为主,生活空间持续扩张且表现出城镇生活空间扩张速度显著高于农村生活空间特点,绿地生态空间和其他生态空间面积持续下降,水域生态空间波动变化。河南省国土空间转型表现出时间阶段性差异特点。前一时段(1990—2005年)以农业生产空间转型至生活空间及生态空间转型至生产空间为主,后一时段(2005—2020年)转型过程更为强烈,主要表现为农业生产空间转型至城镇生活空间以及生活空间与生产空间交互转型为主。前一时段涨势图谱以农业生产空间和城镇生活空间为主,至后一时段,城镇生活空间和农村生活空间面积分别增长了1.56倍和12.35倍。落势图谱上后一时段的农村生活空间萎缩面积远大于城镇生活空间萎缩量,城乡二元化发展态势显著。通过对比不同空间分辨率及时间尺度下模拟精度,确定最优模拟空间分辨率为300 m,最优模拟时间点为2035年。模拟结果显示:至2035年河南省国土空间变化明显放缓,并将主要围绕农村生活空间和农业生产空间转型进行。[结论]河南省的国土空间管理工作应重点关注耕地保护与恢复以及合理引导农村、城镇生活空间统筹发展。

[Objective]The aims of this study are to exploce the pattern of land space change in Henan,and to provide important insights and basis for the local comprehensive land management and spatial planning control.[Methods]The diverse array of data sources,including land use distribution data spanning from 1990 to 2020,natural resource records,and socio-economic indicators were drawn.By crafting comprehensive system for recognize‘production-living-ecology’spaces and leveraging geospatial information graph theory,the discernible patterns underlying the province′s land transformation since 1990 were revealed.Additionally,the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model was employed to simulate forthcoming trends in land use.[Results]Henan Province′s landscape had been predominantly characterized by spaces devoted to agricultural production.The expansion of living spaces remained a sustained trend,with urban living areas growing notably faster than their rural counterparts.Simultaneously,green ecological spaces and other natural habitats had progressively diminished,punctuated by fluctuations in water-based ecological areas.The evolution of land space within Henan Province exhibited discernible phases.During the initial period(1990—2005),the transformation was predominantly marked by shifts from agricultural production spaces to living spaces,and a reconfiguration of ecological spaces into production zones.In the latter period(2005—2020),these transformations intensified,primarily manifesting as conversions from agricultural production areas to urban living spaces,along with dynamic interplays between residential and production zones.Analyzing the trend maps revealed a noteworthy progression.In the earlier phase,agricultural production spaces and urban living areas were prominent.In contrast,the later phase witnessed a considerable expansion of urban living spaces by a factor of 1.56 and rural living spaces by an astonishing 12.35.On the decline side,the contraction of rural living spaces in the latter period was substantially more pronounced than the reduction in urban living spaces,clearly indicating a pronounced trend towards urban-rural dichotomy in development.Through meticulous comparison across various spatial resolutions and temporal scales,we have determined that the optimal simulation spatial resolution for this study was 300 m,and the optimal simulation time point was 2035.The simulation results underscore that by 2035,Henan Province′s land transformation will notably decelerate,with the primary focus pivoting towards the transformation of rural living spaces and agricultural production areas.[Conclusion]Consequently,land space management strategies should emphasize safeguarding and rejuvenating arable lands in Henan Province,and steer the balanced expansion of rural and urban living spaces.