黔西市50年主要气候要素变化趋势分析

Analysis on the change trend ofthe main climate elements in Qianxi City for 50 years

文章以黔西市国家基本气象站1971-2020年主要气象要素观测值为研究资料,采用数理统计、线性回归、5年滑动平均、MK突变检验等方法分析50年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温、降水量、平均相对湿度、日照时数、蒸发量、平均风速等气象要素的年际变化特征、距平值、气候倾向率和突变检验。结果表明:黔西市1971-2020年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温、降水量、平均相对湿度、日照时数、蒸发量、平均风速的多年平均值分别为14.82℃、32.79℃、-4.15℃、956.25 mm、81.08%、1 129.54 h、1 063.08 mm、1.31 m/s;气候倾向率分别为0.026℃/a、0.033℃/a、0.40℃/a、-0.786 mm/a、-0.25%/a、-4.038 h/a、-11.243 mm/a、0.003 m/s/a;年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温的变化趋势在进入21世纪前期有明显的突变升高,降水量在2007年、平均相对湿度在1977年、日照时数在1991年、蒸发量在1992年有浅显的突变减少趋势,多年平均风速随着年份的变化没有明显的突变特征。

The paper takes the observation values of main meteorological elements at the National Basic Meteorological Station in Qianxi City from 1971 to 2020 as research data.Mathematical statistics,linear regression,5 year moving average,MK mutation test are used to analyze the interannual variation characteristics,anomaly values,climate tendency rate,and mutation test of meteorological elements such as average temperature,extreme maximum temperature,extreme minimum temperature,precipitation,average relative humidity,sunshine hours,evaporation,and average wind speed of 50 years.The results show that the average temperature,extreme maximum temperature,extreme minimum temperature,precipitation,average relative humidity,sunshine hours,evaporation,and average wind speed in Qianxi City from 1971 to 2020 were 14.82℃,32.79℃,-4.15℃,956.25 mm,81.08%,1129.54 h,1063.08 mm 1.31 m/s;The climate tendency rates were 0.026℃/a,0.033℃/a,0.04℃/a,-0.786 mm/a,-0.25%/a,-4.038 h/a,-11.243 mm/a,0.003 m/s/a.The trend of annual average temperature,extreme maximum temperature,and extreme minimum temperature showed a significant sudden increase in the early 21st century,and the precipitation in 2007,average relative humidity in 1977,sunshine hours in 1991,and evaporation in 1992 showed a plain decrease trend.The average wind speed over multiple years did not show a significant sudden change with the change of years.