1990~2019年中国2型糖尿病发病趋势及2020~2030年预测

Trend of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 and Projection for 2020 to 2030

目的 分析1990~2019年中国人群2型糖尿病发病流行特征及其原因,预测2020~2030年发病趋势,为中国2型糖尿病防治工作提供参考依据。方法 数据来源于全球疾病负担研究2019数据库,用联结点回归模型分析粗发病率、标化发病率及年龄别发病率变化趋势,贝叶斯-年龄-时期-队列模型预测2020~2030年发病情况。结果 1990~2019年中国全人群、女性、男性2型糖尿病粗发病率及标化发病率均呈上升趋势,粗发病率平均年度变化百分比分别为1.68%、1.65%、1.64%,标化发病率平均年度变化百分比分别为0.44%、0.16%、0.67%,年龄别发病率在15~44岁组段均呈现上升趋势,其中25~29岁人群上升速度最快,其平均年度变化百分比为1.63%;2020~2030年中国全人群、女性、男性标化发病率将呈现下降趋势。结论 1990~2019年中国2型糖尿病的标化发病率与粗发病率整体呈现上升趋势,男性及15~44岁低年龄人群上升趋势较明显。2020~2030年间中国2型糖尿病标化发病率将不断下降,女性下降将较男性明显。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its causes in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019,and to predict the trend of incidence from 2020 to 2030,so as to provide a reference for the pre-vention and treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in China.Methods Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database.Joinpoint regression model was established to analyze trends in crude,age-standardized,and age-specific in-cidence rates.Bayesian-age-period-cohort model was established to predict incidences from 2020 to 2030.Results From 1990 to 2019,the crude incidence rates and age-standardized incidence rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the whole population,female subgroup,and male subgroup in China showed an increasing trend.The average annual percentage changes in crude incidence rates were 1.68%,1.65%,and 1.64%,respectively,while the standardized incidence rates exhibited average annual percentage changes of 0.44%,0.16%,and 0.67%,respectively.Age-specific incidence rates in the 15~44 age group all demonstrated an upward trend,with the 25~29 age group showing the fastest increase at an average annual percentage change of 1.63%.In the period from 2020 to 2030,the age-standardized incidence rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the whole population,females,and males in China are expected to decline.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized and crude incidence rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus in China showed an overall increasing trend.The increasing trends of male subgroup and the younger age(15~44 years old)subgroup were more obvious.The standardized incidence rates of type 2 diabetes melltius in China are expected to decrease consistently in the future,with a more noticeable decline in females compared to males.