子女教育压力、住房压力与生育意愿研究——基于幸福感与社会阶层的挤出效用

A Study of Children's Educational Pressure and Housing Pressure on the Fertility Intentions from the Perspective of the Crowding out Effect of Happiness and Social Class

降低生育成本是中国式人口现代化的重要议题。文章基于CGSS2018年调查数据,研究子女教育压力与住房压力对生育意愿的影响及其内在机制。研究发现,子女教育压力与住房压力抑制了居民生育意愿,且子女教育压力对生育意愿的抑制作用更大,“孩奴”超过了“房奴”成为居民不愿意生育的主要原因。机制研究表明,子女教育压力与住房压力对居民生育意愿具有幸福感挤出效应和社会阶层挤出效应,从而解释了居民为何“不敢生、不愿生”。异质性特征显示,子女教育压力与住房压力给男性带来更大的生育影响,子女教育压力与住房压力对城镇居民生育意愿的抑制作用高于农村居民。本文提出,生育相关的公共政策应重视居民微观层面的幸福感和社会阶层需求,减轻育儿压力,以提高居民生育意愿。

Reducing the costs of childbirth is an important issue in China's population modernization.Based on the survey data of CGSS in 2018,this article studies the influence of children's educational pressure and housing pressure on fertility intentions and its internal mechanism.It shows that the pressure of children's education and housing inhibits the residents'fertility intentions significantly,and the pressure of children's education has even greater inhibitory effect on fertility intentions surpassing that of housing pressure on fertility intentions.Mechanistic studies show that children's education pressure and housing pressure have a crowding-out effect on residents’happiness and social class,thus people tend to"dare not have child and have no desire to have child".The heterogeneity characteristics show that children's education pressure and housing pressure have a greater negative impact on inhibiting the fertility intentions of the male and the residents in the urban.Therefore the public policies related to fertility should pay attention to residents'micro-level well-being and social class needs to reduce childcare pressure and increase residents'fertility intentions.