全球风险社会的政治心理基础:一项理论性的探索

The Political Psychological Foundation of the Global Risk Society:A Theoretical Exploration

后冷战时期,全球政治的风险社会特征日益明显,从地区冲突、战争到西方社会的民粹主义情绪,都预示着风险社会正在重塑传统基于威胁的安全逻辑。全球风险的形成及其传播具有三个层面的政治心理基础,亦即领导精英的人格特质等心理要素自身构成了全球风险,全球风险社会也是具有深层心理基础。进而,全球风险的起源和分配有两种机制,其中,心理机制包括风险认知的差异机制、风险意愿的愿望机制和风险归因的身份机制,政治机制则是风险分配的知识霸权、政治化过程、效仿和学习。最后,全球风险产生了情感极化、对外行为激进化等直接政治心理效应,以及全球安全文化恶化、决策心理政治化和国际秩序退化等间接政治心理效应。总体上,全球风险社会的形成,彰显了反向安全逻辑下风险形成及其分配的心理逻辑与政治逻辑的统一,揭示了传统威胁社会所不具有的社会不平等特征。

In the post-Cold War era,emerging risk society patterns are reshaping global politics.Increasing regional conflicts,wars,and populism across the world indicate that risk society is replacing threat society as the new security logic.Three political psychological foundations underpin the formation and transformation of global risks.First,the personality traits of political elites together with populism constitute a global risk,suggesting that the global risk society is deeply influenced by psychological emotions.Second,the origins and distribution of global risks have two mechanismsone is psychological that includes the cognition,desirability,and attribution of the risks,the other is political that includes knowledge hegemony,politicization,and social learning.Third,global risks result in both direct and indirect effects.Direct effects mainly include affective polarization and the radicalism of strategic behavior,and the indirect effects are the deterioration of global security culture,the politicization of decision-making,and the degeneration of international order.In sum,the emergence of the global risk society shows the formation and distribution of risks via the reverse security logic,whereby the psychological and political processes are closely interlinked.It also suggests that,in a risk society,new forms of social inequality may emerge that are different from those in the traditional threat society.