中美竞争下的对冲及其风险

The Risks of Hedging in China-U.S.Competition

对冲是风险规避的产物。在中美竞争态势下,为了规避选边的风险,有些国家在中美之间选择了对冲策略。然而,作为风险规避的策略,对冲选择本身又会产生新的风险。在韩、法、德等国近期的外交活动中,部分美国盟友表现出了对冲立场松动甚至转向的变化趋势,原因可能在于对冲策略会触发新的风险。在中美竞争态势下,美国对华日趋强硬的立场、美国对盟友释放的信号,以及各国内政面临的压力都是新风险的来源。在美国释放出遏制的强烈决心信号并对盟友施加压力后,各国的预期也会发生相应变化,之前选择对冲策略的美国盟友维持对冲将付出更高的代价、承受更多的风险,因此,部分美国盟友可能会改变立场、放弃对冲。其中,各国实力与内政的差异会影响美国盟友对待风险的态度和承受能力。因此,尽管部分美国盟友的对冲立场发生了转向,但不同国家的转向幅度存在差异。

Hedging is usually regarded as the product of risk aversion.In the competition between China and the United States,some countries have adopted a hedging strategy to avoid the risk of side selection.However,as a risk aversion strategy,hedging also results in new risks.Recent diplomatic activities of South Korea,France,and Germany suggest that some U.S.allies have started to relax or adjust their hedging positions.Under China-U.S.competition,the increasingly tough stance of the United States toward China,the signals released by the United States to its allies,and the pressure from domestic affairs are major sources of new risks for U.S.allies.When the United States releases a strong signal of determination to balancing China and puts pressure on its allies,these states'expectations change accordingly,and those who have adopted hedging strategy may pay a higher price and bear more risks.Therefore,some U.S.allies may change their positions or even abandon hedging.But to what extent their attitudes and positions will change also depends on their national strength and domestic stability.